I am surprised to see the markets up over night.
there are several very good market people on here which I respect and wished I knew half as much as they do.
I try to look ahead, and be somewhat of a position trader, but admittedly not that successful.
my thought is, if, if, trump et al would be nutty enough to go ahead with the idea of not trading with anyone that does business with NK,
then yes, we could see an impact on our exports/ markets.
the only reason I even consider that possibility, is that this bunch seem to take off on a tangent, and then figure out later maybe it's
not best and turn around.
from what I understand, there is really no good way to solve it.....NK really has nothing to loose, and will push things to the limit,
for effect....the question is, what exactly does the little clown want ? real respect will not be gained in this manor.
if a military option must be done, then all things are off the table in the respect what commodities will do......I could see going one
way, to seek security in communities....the other thought, which is what maybe Chicago thinks (and now the key seems to be to
figure out what Chicago thinks, not what the market thinks), that no demand, and so the path of least resistance is to go down.....
I guess the question is, will there be a counter season move in corn and beans, which is what I considered happened in wheat.....
I think a few months down the road, things will be better, but that time frame may be in march or so in wheat and a tad bit later
in beans and corn.....my reasoning is that the crops are not as good as what usda is saying......and as long as something does not
change, we are using a lot of corn and beans.....use/export or "total disappearance" keeps climbing.
I think once we take the reduced acres, due to various reasons, and the lower yields, the total production should be lower, and
in some instances, the "days supplies"....might change, and could make things interesting.
but, the question is, will Chicago take notice, or will they become even more smug, and consider short days supplies are
not that big of an issue, and not move, then we have other things going on. we have china buying grain, livestock direct
and then ship back home.....that will not be consider export, and so the export numbers go down, and then Chicago marks
the price down........
just my opinion.....but I've been known to be wrong.
