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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,893
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

No export sales ???

here is something really chilling.......imagine exports shut off to china, mexico, and a number of other countries......kids, it's being

pondered.........so much for me worrying about the basis !!!

 

 

www.unfoxnews.com/news/trump-s-trade-threat-on-north-korek-would-be-an-economic-disaster?uid=117692

 

 

Advisor
Posts: 574
Registered: ‎06-03-2010

Re: No export sales ???

What if NK nukes us?  Sincerely man, why do you get out of bed in the morning?  Markets are up tonight, relax and enjoy the moment, nothing in this life is guaranteed.  You don't even know if you will be here tomorrow.  What a waste to worry about things that might never happen and miss the good moments you can have right here and now no matter what is going on in the world.  There are millions of people living in poverty around the world that have found a way to be content and happy.

  If you are alive and have your health, you don't understand how good you have it.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 951
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
0

Re: No export sales ???

elcheapo, what is your marketing position in the event some exports are cut off?  Would you plan to buy calls?  Buy puts?  Are you going to forward sell anything you have in the field or bin or are you going to hold off on selling?  Why?

 

You've given this matter considerable attention.  What is your conclusion?

 

We all have a position.  No position is a position.  What is yours?

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,893
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: No export sales ???

I am surprised to see the markets up over night.

 

there are several very good market people on here which I respect and wished I knew half as much as they do.

 

I try to look ahead, and be somewhat of a position trader, but admittedly not that successful.

 

my thought is, if, if, trump et al would be nutty enough to go ahead with the idea of not trading with anyone that does business with NK,

then yes, we could see an impact on our exports/ markets.

the only reason I even consider that possibility, is that this bunch seem to take off on a tangent, and then figure out later maybe it's

not best and turn around.

 

from what I understand, there is really no good way to solve it.....NK really has nothing to loose, and will push things to the limit,

for effect....the question is, what exactly does the little clown want ?  real respect will not be gained in this manor.

if a military option must be done, then all things are off the table in the respect what commodities will do......I could see going one

way, to seek security in communities....the other thought, which is what maybe Chicago thinks (and now the key seems to be to

figure out what Chicago thinks, not what the market thinks), that no demand, and so the path of least resistance is to go down.....

 

I guess the question is, will there be a counter season move in corn and beans, which is what I considered happened in wheat.....

 

I think a few months down the road, things will be better, but that time frame may be in march or so in wheat and a tad bit later

in beans and corn.....my reasoning is that the crops are not as good as what usda is saying......and as long as something does not

change, we are using a lot of corn and beans.....use/export or "total disappearance" keeps climbing.

 

I think once we take the reduced acres, due to various reasons, and the lower yields, the total production should be lower, and

in some instances, the "days supplies"....might change, and could make things interesting.

but, the question is, will  Chicago take notice, or will they become even more smug, and consider short days supplies are

not that big of an issue, and not move, then we have other things going on.  we have china buying grain, livestock direct

and then ship back home.....that will not be consider export, and so the export numbers go down, and then Chicago marks

the price down........

 

just my opinion.....but I've been known to be wrong.

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,602
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: No export sales ???

When was the last time a US president or his choices drove the grain markets.  

 

If there are good marketing folks on here why are you fixated on Trump for your market advice...

 

Send this one to the forum as well.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,301
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: No export sales ???

Nixon, then Carter in spades.

 

Food and medical could very well bet he two exceptions to the rhetoric.

 

The Clinton regime gave the bastards two nuclear reactors and money.

 

The Obama regime kicked the can down the road and dumped this steaming pile of horse excrement

 

In the next guys lap, just happened to be Trump.

 

After Ol lady Clinton slept through Bengazie, you think she'd been better on a deal like this?

 

Might be a good idea to stock up on iodine pills and pour another layer of concrete over that old tornado cave in back yard then several feet of gravel over that.

 

Price of grain might get to be really far down on the list of worries???

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 951
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
0

Re: No export sales ???

So what market position do you take, everyone?  This is a marketing forum.  We are all responsible fore what we do and WHAT WE DON'T DO.  We can not avoid the responsibility to our families and ourselves. 

 

No position is a position.

 

My own position is to market based on the idea there will not be a major disruption in trade.  Maybe I'm wrong.  That is where my money is. 

 

I will grant that maybe this is not the year to use deferred payment.   I will grant that maybe even commercial storage could have dangers.  In other words, either I have the grain in my bin or the money in my bank, nothing slippery in the middle.  That makes sense to me as a precaution.

 

If someone has to take great market risks because that is their only way out this year, maybe options are worthy of consideration.  I don't like nor especially trust options.  If the system breaks, options won't be the last to go bad, so maybe options are not the safest.  But they may be better than being naked if a reversal would kill you.

 

 

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 72
Registered: ‎12-05-2010
0

Re: No export sales ???

Jimmy Carter Russian grain embargo I was just a young man but led to some very tough times

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,481
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: No export sales ???

Jimmy Carter is one president that was glad Obama came along.     I'll let someone else explain why.Smiley Wink

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,602
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: No export sales ???

Nixon ------- are we talking about russias grain theft from the US that drove up prices ?  Financed by the american taxpayer..... That credit belongs with someone in Russia....

 

Carter--- bad case of a farmer in office.......dumb politics posterchild until the great apology tour...