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rsbs
Senior Advisor

Northern Corn Belt...Race to the finish line...49 degrees 8-19-19

read an article where a Minnesota university "expert" was downplaying any frost risk to this years corn crop, and in the article, four or five frost years were commented on. 1974 was not listed as one of them, so I wonder if that was basically a local event....I know that my fathers southern MN crops were devastated that fall, and his finances were drastically changed as killing frosts hit twice in the last days of August. If you are a small farmer, without crop insurance, and you lose your corn crop, it is not pretty. I don't remember my father being angry or mad, but I do remember the somber look on his face as the immature corn plants turned crinkly and died. One week he was looking at his best harvest ever, the next there really was just mushy corn to deal with, or nothing.

Here we are at August 19th, I have late planted corn that just tasseled last week, and the corn market seems to be at harvest lows already, or is it? if a "frost premium risk" is built into these prices, how low will the fall price go if we do get a warm September, and half of October is free from Jack Frost, too? The market seems pretty complacent, but part of that is that crops come online all over the world on a regular basis, and there are a lot of places in the US cornbelt with decent prospects.

Glad I spent the extra money on premium crop insurance coverage last spring, and that I am in better financial shape than my father was. It has been a tough year to get excited about contracting 2019 production, not knowing if there even is going to be any. The growers that did get corn timely planted and that did sell for the $4.50 are in an enviable position right now. 

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4 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Northern Corn Belt...Race to the finish line...49 degrees 8-19-19

No doubt about it. The markets are very complacent.
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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Northern Corn Belt...Race to the finish line...49 degrees 8-19-19

A lot of this "91 million acres" was only planted for insurance purposes, dragging a planter across the field pays better than PP.  It will come out in the wash, unfortunately in January when we`re watching the "monster Brazil crop coming".

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: Northern Corn Belt...Race to the finish line...49 degrees 8-19-19


@rsbs wrote:

read an article where a Minnesota university "expert" was downplaying any frost risk to this years corn crop, and in the article, four or five frost years were commented on. 1974 was not listed as one of them, so I wonder if that was basically a local event....I know that my fathers southern MN crops were devastated that fall, and his finances were drastically changed as killing frosts hit twice in the last days of August. If you are a small farmer, without crop insurance, and you lose your corn crop, it is not pretty. I don't remember my father being angry or mad, but I do remember the somber look on his face as the immature corn plants turned crinkly and died. One week he was looking at his best harvest ever, the next there really was just mushy corn to deal with, or nothing.

Here we are at August 19th, I have late planted corn that just tasseled last week, and the corn market seems to be at harvest lows already, or is it? if a "frost premium risk" is built into these prices, how low will the fall price go if we do get a warm September, and half of October is free from Jack Frost, too? The market seems pretty complacent, but part of that is that crops come online all over the world on a regular basis, and there are a lot of places in the US cornbelt with decent prospects.

Glad I spent the extra money on premium crop insurance coverage last spring, and that I am in better financial shape than my father was. It has been a tough year to get excited about contracting 2019 production, not knowing if there even is going to be any. The growers that did get corn timely planted and that did sell for the $4.50 are in an enviable position right now. 


The Full Moon is say Sept.  15th this year. 

IF you can make it thru that,  Then theoretically the next killing frost risk is Oct.  15th...the Full Moon then. 

I do think everyone will make it thru Sept 15 without a killing frost then. 

Getting to Oct 15th?  Well Hopefully. 

We'll See. 

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Re: Northern Corn Belt...Race to the finish line...49 degrees 8-19-19

A lot of this "91 million acres" was only planted for insurance purposes, dragging a planter across the field pays better than PP.

January will be to late for the hoped for higher fall price, which had to be part of that hope of dragging the planter. The extra expense of seed, fertilizer,drying, and higher chemical cost mostly offset extra insurance with out the hoped for higher price.  If you cut population, didn't fertilize, and maybe squeezed chemical those acres are still being used against the market until its too late for said hoped price rise.  And a question, if you cut pop and didn't fertilize just to be corn does that give insurance companies a hook to get out of payment? That normal farming practices thing.

 

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