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Senior Advisor

Re: Not MN or IA, but.......................

Disagree 89, with our dry soils and frigid temps, we are shaping up for a disaster in certain locations.  It might not be wide spread, but certain areas will be in real trouble soon if they aren't already there.  Perfect scenario for winter kill, we have temps forecasted to dip into the single digits the next couple days with no protection from snow cover.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Not MN or IA, but.......................

CX 1 this is for you...

 

WARNING straight talk included with this weather forecast.

 

we are headed for -6 and already have the 20+mph  breeze out of the north

 

(We are just a little down wind from this)

 

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8hGIF9FljM

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Advisor

Re: Not MN or IA, but.......................

Yeah but, I have heard this winterkill stuff for years, and I get excited and it never amounts to anything and the wheat price still goes down.

So I just generally turn it off, wait til spring, and feel smug. I mean, I've had bare wheat in the winter before... Cold, ice on top. Not much winterkill at all. Hell that exposed wheat was still above trend even w some guys getting may ponding.

The extension fellow says winterkill is a 1 in 100 probability using the last 100 years--- using real world data for my region.

Maybe this doesn't apply for the south. We won't know til the spring, but I'm not excited yet.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Not MN or IA, but.......................

Thanks, Hobby

 

This one should include your area.....serious stuff:

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
600 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014

...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT...

.GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE WINDS
HAVE BEEN LOFTING THE CURRENT SNOW PACK OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND
LEADING TO NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES HAVE
SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING IN THESE AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE BY LATE EVENING. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW
ZERO...WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 BELOW
ZERO TONIGHT.

---EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-
HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...ALGONA...EMMETSBURG...
POCAHONTAS...LAURENS...ROLFE...FONDA...GILMORE CITY...HUMBOLDT...
FORT DODGE...WEBSTER CITY...IOWA FALLS...ELDORA...ACKLEY

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Senior Advisor

Re: Not MN or IA, but.......................

Agree 89, but you said covered with ice.  That ice believe it or not shields the plants from the sub 0 temperatures.  I would love to have a 1/4" ice blanket right now on our wheat.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Not MN or IA, but.......................

ScreenShot093.gifsingle digits or below for a few hours with NO snow or ice cover is enough to kill the wheat.....

 

ScreenShot090.gifScreenShot091.gifScreenShot092.gif

 

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Advisor

Re: Not MN or IA, but.......................

I got a picture for you CX1. It indicates maximum cold tolerance of -10f before damage occcurs at this point w/o snow

 

http://extension.udel.edu/kentagextension/wp-content/blogs.dir/11/files/blogger/-RTqs_EnrcrQ/T3B0CKE...

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Senior Advisor

Re: Not MN or IA, but.......................

89, how much topsoil moisture is figured into that?  We have 0.  Oilfield pit diggers told me yesterday they were at 45" before they hit moisture.  Moist soil freezes to protect the plant, dry soils offer no protection.  I'm not talking a widespread area, just small pockets here and there.  Unfortunately for me, I'm in one of those pockets.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Not MN or IA, but.......................

thanks 89,

i've seen that graph before as well..........doing research tonight, said below 10* F for a SIGNIFICANT time (but didn't specify)......meteorology defines 4-5 hrs or more as significant, but - graph is pretty definitive......article was from Tx A & M -- ALSO said drier soil conditions and later planted make plant more vulnerable -- AND the more desiccation the plant matter has incurred also makes it less resistant to the cold, which would be the case - to varying degrees on the KA & CO ( some in OK, as well) crops.

 

also, does windchill affect the wheat plant???....anybody know that answer? thanks.

 

only time will tell.

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Advisor

Re: Not MN or IA, but.......................

Shaggy, since we don't have a farm bill, do you have crop insurance?? Just curious, because we don't usually buy ours til march and not sure what will be available for us.

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