cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Nothingburger Watch

Even if it is delayed, I predict that NAFTA2 will be approved eventually.  The majority of Dems voted against the original (and ChinaWTO) but there's little to be gained by not just reauthorizing NAFTA at this point. If this was being put forward by a D Admin then Tea Party Republicans would be bitterly opposed, but enough said.

Looking like China Phase 1 will be very modest. A return to previous levels of ag purchases and some modest reform in exchange for stopping the 12/15 round of tariffs and rolling some back. Can't predict if China will jerk the tail a little over the Hong Kong nothingburger but it is looking like both sides are down to a Korea War level of mutual stalemate and ready to draw a line at the 38th parallel and go back to how things were.

I don't know how much that will encourage businesses to resume investment, but I'm a little skeptical. I think we're just at a very late stage in the recovery where corps have pulled out all the stops to raise stock prices- GAAP adjustments, borrowing for stock buybacks etc. I think our corporate sector is somewhat impaired by the short termism that we've encouraged and there are troubling signs in subprime consumer credit.

The "surprising consumer" seems to be primarily a function of asset inflation- that has become the primary means for transmission of monetary policy to the economy in the modern neoliberal regime, but it a weak and transient one. We'll see if they can manage to keep the stock market up.

I wouldn't rule out limping into the election at 2% growth and enough good data points and financial inflation to claim a great economy. But the risks are heavily weighted to the downside.

0 Kudos
7 Replies
Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Nothingburger Watch

Trump is GREAT! BEST president EVER! He'll make sure that our income stays positive. He says that he got all of our lost ethanol markets back, and said he got us a GREAT deal on Chinese ag. commodities exports. 'nuff said! 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Nothingburger Watch

Wow this guy hilarious, oblivious to reality almost sounds like direct sarcasm.  Newly enforced tariffs on Argentina and Brazil on top of two trade deals that will ultimately be the same to less than what we already had.? If someone only said this would be the outcome, would any of it have been worth the effort and loss to attempt. Ohh wait I did. By the way US GDP 1.9 China 6.  

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Nothingburger Watch

FWIW stock market very much wants a quick nothingburger and then for this POTUS and his admin to *****.

Disappointing data behind this morning's dive but the Bull Fever appeared to break on Fri and again with the overnight tweet about tariffs.

Although the market is very vulnerable here with everybody all in, risk on and implied volatility down to zilch.

However.........if the sell off becomes self reinforcing there will be another political narrative- your 401ks will go to zero if impeachment occurs. That's already been threatened, I was just waiting for when it gets played.

BTW, watch the VIX. If it breaks the clear downtrend line starting a couple of years ago this thing could get ugly. Everybody got lured to one side of the boat by the moral hazard of market manipulation.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=vix&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=9

I'm alarmed by the multitudes who don't recognize that we're in a funhouse.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Nothingburger Watch

Okay, Okay...Sarcasm squared. I have been saying for three years that the Trump regime is leading us all down the path of no return.

I have not locally seen a positive return on corn or soybeans for three years (coincidence). Can't sell a (non contract) hog, or steer for any decent margin, either. Still nothing positive with China, or ethanol either.

More talk of tariffs- just what we need. How long will the US public continue to subsidize welfare payments to our neighbors?   

SDHolloway56 mentioned a funhouse? More like the first trip on a new rollercoaster that only has half of the track completed (Hang on tight and keep your hands on your wallet at all times).

So...why is Trump still so popular out here in flyover country?

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Nothingburger Watch

Power   -   keep  in  mind ,  Crow  feathers   are  very  low  in  T  D  N  (feed value )   - - -   

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Nothingburger Watch

I predict the nothing burger will take Burger King out of business.

Or were we talking about that first entry?

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Nothingburger Watch

HAHAHA!!!

I believe that you mean "The Impossible Whopper"

But I like "Nothing Burger" even better

Thanks! PM 

0 Kudos