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Nov Crop Production

What can we expect?   The Oct Production Report was based on mature samples taken to the lab.   Per the Report, 29% of the samples were actually processed for yield as that was the percentage of mature corn.   The 29% mature happens to be the same number on the Sept 22 crop progress report.   One should logically expect that the samples tested should be around 93% as that was the percent of corn mature on the Oct 27 crop progress report.   Wisconsin, Michigan and N Dakota all were around the 75% of corn mature.   USDA going to make some calls?   I think this report will tell us if the later planted corn yielded less, as a lot of agronomists and analysts have been saying.   Can anyone guess how N Dak, Mich and Wisconsin will figure in as the corn is so far behind in maturity and harvesting?

   Personally, I think the national bpa will come down as prior years had around 75% mature for the OCT Report, whereas this year we had around 71% of corn not mature and consequently not tested.   We shall see...

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Honored Advisor

Re: Nov Crop Production

If you are expecting the USDA to come close to the actual production, keep in mind that what they are trying to do is hit a moving target with their predictions. 

With all the crappy weather and overall  lousy crop conditions, It’s about like hitting a flying bumble bee  using a bow & arrow. 

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Advisor

Re: Does it matter, demand is way down.

Last year at this time we had 21.8 MMT of exports on the books, this year 11.4 MMT. Because of all the exemptions and the "wonderful" deal on the RFS, ethanol production is down 5% and will remain lower.  What are there now 20 ethanol plants shutdown, 10% of your capacity?  Here anyhow, despite their own poor corn harvest, the dairy producers are so strapped for cash they can't pay for the feed they buy.

  If you aren't selling it and you aren't grinding it, who cares how much you produced?

  

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