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Honored Advisor
Posts: 17,913
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Now might not be best timing to end tariffs

I heard Matt from FC Stone say that if bean tariffs ended now and regular trade resumed with China, that would make our beans less competitive for our new trade partners that we picked up. Brazil`s high priced beans would look cheaper.   I think it is 22% stocks to use on beans, so no shortage of supply anywhere, anytime soon. What`s amazing is this un contained African Swine Fever, there may`ve been more hogs in China lost then what is produced in the US.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,893
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: Now might not be best timing to end tariffs

And maybe not. 🕵🏻‍♀️
Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,893
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: Now might not be best timing to end tariffs

Don’t go home empty handed. ❤️
Senior Contributor
Posts: 993
Registered: ‎11-30-2014

Re: Horse Pockey, the sooner all tariffs end

The Better.

That Simple.

 

those are just another dilusional dream of the kromagnom from so long ago it's mostly prehistoric.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,728
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Now might not be best timing to end tariffs

I  thought  we  were  the  one's  feeding  the  world ,  did  I  miss  that  memo  also  -   -   - 

 

2nd   ,  UN  -  KNOWN  destination ,  being  in  relation  to , UN  -  KNOWN  ORIGINATION  -   -  - ?  ? 

 

Start  the  bean  press,  bio - fuel ,  phase  2,  3,   4  - ? 

 

Kinda  like  the  guy  said ,  turn  3  pigs  loose,  numbered 1, 2, & 4 -  and  let  them  fret, to  find  number  3  -  ? Smiley Frustrated 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 17,913
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Now might not be best timing to end tariffs

Take it for what it`s worth but traders aren`t whole hog short yet in case a China trade resolution happens and there`s a 50 cent pop. However, this might be that snap shot opportunity that Indiana Jones has to grab his hat before the 20 ton wall slams down.  

 

One would think with lost hogs in China there would be export opportunity, but "President for life" Xi in a totalitarian nation can just cut rations.   If you`re used to 2 strips of bacon and you`re forced down to half a strip, one would think there would be a revolt, but there isn`t a 2nd Amendment in China. 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 2,890
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Now might not be best timing to end tariffs

Does this China pig thing give a new meaning to the definition of sweet & sour pork?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 17,913
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Now might not be best timing to end tariffs

I don`t know how the mechanics of the ASF disease operates but I`ve heard some infected animals go into the food chain instead of destroyed....maybe it`s "safe" I don`t know, but I wouldn`t be big on eating "road kill".   So there`s that and along with infection outbreaks in multiple places in China, it`s hard to get a handle on the size of their problem.  Over there they claimed to have 9% economic growth, now slowed to "only" 6.5%....yeah and Anna Nicole married for love.  Smiley Happy

Senior Contributor
Posts: 993
Registered: ‎11-30-2014

Re: A recent source claims

China will depopulate 20% of the total hogs in 2019.

 

Sounds like they consumed 700 million pigs in 2017.

since that is a govt stat, I figure they actually consumed say 100 to 200 million More.

 

irregardless the bean tariffs have worked for the processing and consumption end.

 

heck a deal of " supposed " reason for 20 to 30% cheaper input for the process / thru consumer end.

And it worked for 2 Years!  

 

So so some farmers get screwed...they'll get over it.....that's how totally integrated business to govt works now times.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 17,913
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: A recent source claims

Cash beans have been as low as now in the not so distance past, 2015 August 31 - 2016 January 31 beans were $8.50ish like now and that was when it looked like China could continue taking advantage of us for infinity "you know who" was a long way from being president.   IMO over-production is the problem and trade & tariffs are the excuse.  

 

But there are Grizzly bears, Polar bears and Grain market bears, I don`t want any 3 of the species to go extinct, however if you are unaware 2 of the 3 will eat you and the other will make you go broke if you don`t know what you`re doing.