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02-14-2019 06:46 AM
I heard Matt from FC Stone say that if bean tariffs ended now and regular trade resumed with China, that would make our beans less competitive for our new trade partners that we picked up. Brazil`s high priced beans would look cheaper. I think it is 22% stocks to use on beans, so no shortage of supply anywhere, anytime soon. What`s amazing is this un contained African Swine Fever, there may`ve been more hogs in China lost then what is produced in the US.
02-14-2019 11:27 AM
I thought we were the one's feeding the world , did I miss that memo also - - -
2nd , UN - KNOWN destination , being in relation to , UN - KNOWN ORIGINATION - - - ? ?
Start the bean press, bio - fuel , phase 2, 3, 4 - ?
Kinda like the guy said , turn 3 pigs loose, numbered 1, 2, & 4 - and let them fret, to find number 3 - ?
02-15-2019 06:44 AM
Take it for what it`s worth but traders aren`t whole hog short yet in case a China trade resolution happens and there`s a 50 cent pop. However, this might be that snap shot opportunity that Indiana Jones has to grab his hat before the 20 ton wall slams down.
One would think with lost hogs in China there would be export opportunity, but "President for life" Xi in a totalitarian nation can just cut rations. If you`re used to 2 strips of bacon and you`re forced down to half a strip, one would think there would be a revolt, but there isn`t a 2nd Amendment in China.
02-16-2019 07:17 AM
I don`t know how the mechanics of the ASF disease operates but I`ve heard some infected animals go into the food chain instead of destroyed....maybe it`s "safe" I don`t know, but I wouldn`t be big on eating "road kill". So there`s that and along with infection outbreaks in multiple places in China, it`s hard to get a handle on the size of their problem. Over there they claimed to have 9% economic growth, now slowed to "only" 6.5%....yeah and Anna Nicole married for love.
02-16-2019 08:22 AM
China will depopulate 20% of the total hogs in 2019.
Sounds like they consumed 700 million pigs in 2017.
since that is a govt stat, I figure they actually consumed say 100 to 200 million More.
irregardless the bean tariffs have worked for the processing and consumption end.
heck a deal of " supposed " reason for 20 to 30% cheaper input for the process / thru consumer end.
And it worked for 2 Years!
So so some farmers get screwed...they'll get over it.....that's how totally integrated business to govt works now times.
02-16-2019 09:03 AM
Cash beans have been as low as now in the not so distance past, 2015 August 31 - 2016 January 31 beans were $8.50ish like now and that was when it looked like China could continue taking advantage of us for infinity "you know who" was a long way from being president. IMO over-production is the problem and trade & tariffs are the excuse.
But there are Grizzly bears, Polar bears and Grain market bears, I don`t want any 3 of the species to go extinct, however if you are unaware 2 of the 3 will eat you and the other will make you go broke if you don`t know what you`re doing.