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Veteran Advisor

Now the Chinese aren't so sure.

19 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: Now the Chinese aren't so sure.

If China wants to back out of this deal, that would be great, because I hate to say this but I`m afraid Trump might have gotten rolled, though the details aren`t out yet.  China is a basket case economically and out of desperation are coming to us, Brazil is out of beans and China is running out of ASF sows to eat that won`t be farrowing pigs.

Trump didn`t listen to his advisers Kyle Bass and Bob Lightizer that wanted "NO DEAL!" increase the tariffs as planned and grind that communist nation into the dirt.  But this poor deal, I blame the Democrats because of their impeachment bull crap, Trump believes that he needed a "quick win" for the polls and that precious stock market.  However it mainly bails China out...if they want to back out, great! let`s raise the tariffs as planned and grind them into the dirt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXMiNqF8dzk

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Honored Advisor

Re: Now the Chinese aren't so sure.

Could it be just their normal business.....planting bearish news, then buying after the prices go down. D***, we are slow learners.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Well, if that was their plan, it doesn't seem to be working.

Beans are up to $9.45 as I type.

  More likely, the insurance companies are making sure there's no recovery for the spring price.  What do they need, 15 more cents to be in the clear.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Now the Chinese aren't so sure.

ATTN:  @BA Deere   And for those of you who immediately discount any news except CNN's and MSNBC's...as you were.

https://www.agricensus.com/Article/After-four-years-of-de-stocking-China-is-to-end-2019-corn-auction...

"After four years of de-stocking, China is to end 2019 corn auctions

8 Oct 2019 | Johnny Huang

China’s national grain trade centre (NGTC) has announced that state-held auctions for corn reserves in the 2019 calendar year will conclude by the end of next week, which would mark an end to four years of auctions.

“After the research and decision from concerned departments, the auctions for national temporary corn reserves will be suspended as of October 18, 2019,” said NGTC in a statement published on its official website.

NGTC did not specify the reason for ending corn auctions next week.

China also concluded corn auctions in October last year as the new harvest of corn crops normally enters the market at this time each year.

Although there are still two more rounds of corn auctions to be held this Thursday and next Thursday, with each offering nearly 3.5 million mt, the country has already sold nearly 22 million mt of corn reserves in 2019 through 19 rounds of weekly auctions since late May this year.

However, the pace was much slower compared to the sales volume of more than 100 million mt in 2018.

China has been offering to sell between 3.5-4 million mt of corn reserves during every week’s auction this year, but weekly sales volumes plunged from more than 3 million mt in late May to as low as 105,000 mt two weeks ago.

The overall clearance rate of corn auctions this year was below 30%, out of a cumulative offer of more than 73.5 million mt, reflecting poor demand in the world's number one feed consumer.

China has been cutting down its massive corn reserves through state auctions since 2016 and has been aiming to transform the domestic corn market from a policy-dictated system to a market-driven one.

Earlier this year, officials from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) said “2019 is likely to see the last round of destocking in China,” meaning that the country could end state auctions after four consecutive years.

The market expects China to still have around 56 million mt of corn reserves by the end of this year’s auctions.

China’s corn production this year is expected to reach more than 255 million mt of which 174 million mt will be used in animal feed and 84.5 million mt is expected to be consumed by industry including ethanol producers, according to recent estimates from MARA."

 

 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Now the Chinese aren't so sure.

Grinding China in to the dirt might make you feel better BA, but is assures a deep global depression, which is not good for BA for anyone else. Maybe everyone just needs to take a breath. ;=)

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Honored Advisor

Re: Now the Chinese aren't so sure.

We have a Mexican standoff in Asia Smiley Happy   Time, we don`t need China, we made them and we can break them.  Trump apparently gave them a sweetheart deal and now it`s reported that they are balking????  If that`s true, we can do things the hard way a bit longer.   Like the Drill Sargent says "I can`t make you do it, but I can make you wish you did!".

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Senior Contributor

Re: Now the Chinese aren't so sure.

you can use any excuse for the presidents actions but if he is so good at making deals he should know better than announcing a “deal” when nothing has been signed!! I  was hoping he got the deal that would make agriculture better than ever before but its the same old BS for the 5 o clock news. If he has no deal then he should keep his trap shut. Hes lucky to have people that keep damage control to a minimum

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Honored Advisor

Re: Now the Chinese aren't so sure.

HWR,  there is a high possibility that what you`re hearing about "no deal" is just face saving, post-deal, smack talking.  I tend to think the $50 billion ag deal did go through as advertised and I think the next year will be berry berry gooood for farming. 

David Kruse irrationally hates Trump, but his take is "next year bullish for agriculture....starting now!".   Believe me, if there`s any holes in the deal Kruse wouldn`t be bashful pointing them out.

 

https://commstock.com/media/ 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Now the Chinese aren't so sure.

BA, I would say china has the US by the tail more than the other way around.