Do you feel this has the same potential as the year when Mpls hit over $20? Or was that more of a suprise then. To me, it has this feeling like people will be caught off gaurd again.
I'm not expecting $20 S Wheat. At least not this year. If the Aussies go into a complete drought it might change, as Argentina is planting a much smaller crop of wheat and if Ukraine stays dry for planting this fall. Ukraine would be the fiorst indication of a multiyear event.. A related question is whether the Southern Plains is in a drought cycle. There isn't a way to answer that question until next year. A lot of wheat is going to get planted there with hopes of DC soy.
The set up makes me nervous for next year. But I wouldn't make any marketing decisions based on these possibilities at this time.
A few showers have gone through and a few drills are already running. But, same as last year, Dry 4 inches down and below. Moisture will have to fall just right if we don't see a big swing up in rain/snow soon we will finish another year at less than 40% of normal rainfall. The edge of diseaster and we cannot expect to luck out every year like this one in wheat. We raised 20-30 bu/a on 6 inches of rain----could have been much worse.
