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elcheapo
Senior Advisor

Now what ????

Well here we are......the real possibility of significant damage done to the HRWW crop again.......for how many years

have we said that ???

 

I'm speaking to the chior now......and anyone else who cares to listen who perhaps is not located in the HRWW area, but

perhaps the subarbs of chicago.

 

There was a hard freeze last night.......even so the NWS issued a freeze warning, again again tonight they have

issued yet another one for NW Ok, SE ks, and the SW of ark..........kids this is march...and we are issuing freeze warnings,

does that tell you anything.

 

There are many factors that will determine the level of damage...how thick the wheat was, how much moisture in the

soil, most importantly, the growth stage of the crop.....if we are at jointing, the critical themps are in the teens if

it is jointing....and even warmer as the wheat becomes more mature. From compiled reports, we were the early joint

stage, at a minium.

 

BUT all is not lost....the plant can reload and retiller....something that your crop insurance company will be quick to

inform you.....and yes, we have had nice recoverys from simular situations, but you need to have near ideal conditions,

a long, damp, somewhat cool spring........but......here comes the problems, first, moisture, most areas are somewhat on

the short side......second, we are forecast to jump right back up into the 60's and 70's....if that isn't enough of a chalange,

you now have leaf diseases....already spotted near the okla and ks boarder.....leaf diseases seen in early march ??

That brings out some good questions...economic questions.....ok....we're going to need more rain, ideal weather,

and now the need to hit it once or maybe twice with expensive fungicide......and all at these low prices.....also

factor in that we will have to regrow the tillers so to speak, and so the wheat will be late.....setting up higher chances

to suffer from wx damage (or lack thereof), due to the crop being late.

 

Well, just what in the $%#@ do we do now.....pray ? (wouldn't be a bad idea)

options....first survey the damge, that will be able to be seen by tuesday, with temps in the mid 70's....if we have damge,

we press speed dial #3 on our cell phones (1-local pub  2-local repair/parts  3-crop insurance  4-bank  5-wife)

make a claim.  Can't hurt you..but be preaired to hear a speech by agent then adjuster tho.

From what I understand, one of several things.....you can accept so much now....but the second crop is insured at

100%.....or you wait untill the wheat matures, then adjust again...50/50 odds.

if you take the early out, i guess you could let it grow out, and then swath and round bale..and then go with

another crop....if you are worried about moisture, might just go with glyphos...can be had for about $10 a gallon

or less in bulk...if you are in a high priced area, PM and i can give you a source.

next the herbicide program.....some may allow milo, beans or maybe something exotic like sunflowers.

other options, planting feed....from millet, to sudan.......might be able to strike up a deal with the local

feeders and plant some forage corn....but that red eyed devil, moisture comes into play.....and speaking of

which, the odds favor this year to have a below normal precp and higher than normal temp midway thru

the growing season.

 

options......i know of a place that has milo seed for $90 a bag, and some older genetics soybeans, with RR and

maybe some have STS incase you need that......one will need to look at that........since this is basicly a

"rescue" crop....we are already behind the 8 ball, and things not looking good forward....we are going to need

to cut things to the bone.....and maybe even loose a little bit of blood.

 

BUT PERHAPS EVEN MORE TROUBLING......NEXT YEAR....we might, might make it by with the skin of our

teeth this year, with the help of every saint in the book helping us............but next year.....next year might be

the one that does it......if, we see the la nina develop.....which is being put at better than 50% odds....we will

not be filling the soil profile, which has been depleated for several years.....not to mention what this

year will bring (i'm speaking of the high plains area)...and on heals of a bad year this year....and so money

might even be tighter.......what if this does bring the death nail to the land prices (at least on the high plains).

odds are that crop inputs will be higher.....since oil is nuding higher....so higher fert cost...chemical cost,

nope....too many legel fee's from the merging......seed cost, same thing, but curious note......most seed is

"custom grown".....many times, the price the farmer recieves is so much per bushel, and is based

on the current market.......funny.......commodities have come down.....thusly the cost of seed to the

companies have went down..........but their sale prices didn't....curious.....might ask your seedman about that.

 

and, for the fun of it, let's just throw this out for fun......(or the final turning of the knife in our back).....we had a

small, saving grace on the back burner, the farm payments......which did show some promise....since commodity

prices have fell.....we would be below the "olympic" price.......but.......but.........just for nothing more than misery,

lets say the crowd in chicago wake up bright and early monday morning, and their feet are welcomed to a cold

floor...and while in the shower, hear stories on how the wheat has frozen in the midwest.......and the "common

thinking" is we need to push wheat up.......we start.....computer hard drives start to hum.....lights indicating that

the coprocessors are in operation........and we see the market start to climb.......there is a mad rush to the

door to get out of their current position.....its pure madness, orders comming in to sell at any cost, orders

to buy at any cost....the charts shoot up......the computer programs take note......triggering yet another

round of buying......this cycle take place for several days........we end up $1 a bushel higher......

normally, with something like that, you wouldn't need to buy a drink at the local honkey tonk since there

would be fellows there with big smiles, buying rounds for the house......but.....problem.....we have nothing

to sell.....the price has rally, and thus the size of our program payment shrink.........

 

what to do............when you figure it out......leave me a message here......so you can share with our fellow down in the

mouth commodity producers.

 

side note....enjoying 1970's soft rock on youtube.......and have the christmas tree plugged in............here in my recliner

with the laptop on my lap.......between the pretty multi colored lights of the tree, and the soothing music..at least

now.....for a few minutes at least, i don't at least have a frown on my face, remembering happier times.

 

something tells me, we are not going to have worry about putting up the tree after thanksgiving this year. 

 

FYI   july KC at the money (4.80) call is about 24 1/2 cents, out of the money at $5 is 17 cents.

 

 

Additional research while up tonight watching how cold it gets.

 

freeze damge on wheat on crop insurance....several options

1.  carry it untill harvest

2.  you can take 35% of the indemnity (but you also pay 35% of premium), you can then put in another crop.

     The second crop can be insured at 100%, and you pay 100% of premium.  If the second crop does not

     trigger an indemnity payment, you can request the remaining 65% of the wheat indemnity, but you must

     pay the 65% of the premium.

     If the second crop fails, you can get 100% of the second crop..but there will not be any additional payments

     made on the wheat.

 

you, in theory, could get 35% of the wheat and 100% of second crop....total of no more than 135% in any given year.

 

 

Selecting a second crop....be advised, on March 17th, the greenhouse at the Ft. Hays experiment station at Hays

reported Sugar cane apids were discovered .  While this is early....and most that came this far, this early were

on a "sucide mission".....The warm wx has them going......and understand this is the first part of MARCH !!!

The etomology department was suggesting planting early to help avoid the SCA, but due to this latest finding,

they are reconsidring that suggestion.......consult the march 17 etomology update from k-state

 

30 degress at 1:11 an

 

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1 Reply
ray h.
Senior Contributor

Re: Now what ????

      do you remember 07?

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