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Senior Advisor

Numbers vs 'analysis'

The USDA export numbers and the 'trade' guesstimates.

 

"Wheat=728,000 tons vs. the trade's expectations of 410,000 mt." {Thanks Mike}

 

 

What one of our buyers reported.

 

"The weekly wheat export sales totals came in at near industry expectations."

 

Smiley Very Happy

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7 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Numbers vs 'analysis'

Your buyer is probably short.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Numbers vs 'analysis'

gio...???

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Numbers vs 'analysis'

Sorry Charlie, look at the trend.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Numbers vs 'analysis'

 your reply was about beans before you edited it.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Numbers vs 'analysis'

and...

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Senior Advisor

Re: Numbers vs 'analysis'

The 'analysis' by this buyer in the background is virtually always the same regardless of how well the market is doing. My example was simply 'business as usual' in trying to set the tone of the market. It may be somewhat successful in our regional market where there are few independent commentaries and fewer yet for SWW.

 

In  casual conversations I WILL hear 'analysis' like this repeated in all seriousness by some producers. It's somewhat unfortunate in an area with little forward looking or even current commentary available. On the other hand, those with grain left to sell here probably know the ropes.

 

I have more respect for the buyer that either says nothing and assumes the producer will/won't have things figured out, and all things being equal, I will sell to that buyer rather than the one who is consistently trying to skew the market with misleading 'analysis'.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Numbers vs 'analysis'

Great points Palouser,

 

Only in Grain marketing do sellers give adviser status to folks who either 1) profit from their decision, 2) speak the most  or      both.

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