OK ...here's my prediction

[idalivered]

I qualify this by "looking out my back door", so here goes. COC acres in iowa (and probably minnesota and illinois) will be huge next year. this past autumn was fantastic for tillage, dry and nh3 application. corn yields were better than expected and early frost knocked back many mid to late season soy yields. I also moved one of my children from southern new york to southern ohio and the parts of ohio and indiana I saw were heavy on soybeans last year. given a chance, i suspect that will go back to corn. The real sleeper for 2012 might just be soybeans, but reality will take time to evolve. 96 million corn acres at trend yields gets us what price? Our local new crop price this morning is about $5.40. Are $14 new crop soybeans somewhere in our future???? It will take a really big pair to wait for that, but that's how I see it. (I'll still be about 65-70% corn)

[Blacksandfarmer]

Ida you are probably right about central and western cornbelt COC acres for this year. One thing I have noticed about Ohio producers over the years is that they like to plant soybeans a lot more than corn....... I don't know why, I think some of that has to do with the heavy clay soil type. I mentioned this a couple months ago, last years very wet fall made it nearly impossible to plant wheat in much of Ohio and southeastern Michigan that typically plant a good deal of wheat. Those acres will most likely go to corn next year. Even IF we have a somewhat "normal" weather year I think we could see a fall corn price with a 3 in front of it. I don't have the guts to wait on $14 to forward sell beans.

[rayjenkins]

I drove from home in south central Iowa up to Marshall county yesterday. Evidence of what I would call "grooming" to get maximum acreage in 2012.....fence rows cleaned out, small pieces of grass in some fields that had not been farmed were tilled and being brought back into production......and the bulk of fields in a state of ready where "one pass and plant" is the most that has to be done....

If one believes that December 2012 futures hold substantial risk premium, think about the fact they have already traded 5.35, and that was 12-13 months prior to the '12 harvest......we'll have to see what transpires in the southern hemisphere, but a near 14 byn US crop would have sigificant downside implications in the fall....$4.50 Dec futures seem possible under that scenario....but that is quite a ways down the track before it can come to fruition....

Imagine a scenario where we have $6 spring price and $4.50 fall price on crop insurance...for a farmer with 180 APH and 80% coverage, that slide in price will push yield coverage to 192 bpa.....

Another year of big opportunity.....and risk

Ray J

[rayjenkins]

Blacksand......I look at corn to bean yield ratios for clues where to expect changes in cropping patterns. There is a pool of about 30-35 myn acres in the heart of the corn belt where the ratio is in the upper 3's and approaching 4 in places--that is where you see a lot of corn on corn.....as you get out of the heart of that prime acreage, and especially as you get to more of the fringe areas, that ratio drops into the lower 3's and those are the places where the traditional rotation is tougher to budge....

Simplistic, but explains some things....

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Couple things to consider....... For every acre that's groomed there's likely one being commercially developed.......take a look around Des Moines........ COC will not be any bigger and might actually shrink in Iowa and Illinois.........yes tillage was done, but that doesn't mean it will be corn, it's flat and black......it gets turned from time to time even if it's for soya......remember a dry fall brings opportunity to do some extra work........and most in Iowa already had to make the high rent decision to grow corn last year, not a new concept..... Seed corn acres will likely be up given issues last year and issues in SA now....... Trendline yields on 90 plus million acres is different than 80 million acres........ 96 million acres of corn at 156 is a 13.7 crop........which means about 71 million acres of soya which is a 2.9 crop if we are lucky....... You claim COC acres will be up, yet say you will hold steady.......guys that run flat out on corn did so last year too, otherwise it will be like you, steady........ The real question is will supply drive demand or will demand drive supply going forward.........

[rayjenkins]

Speaking for Iowa.....there were far larger cash rent adjustments for the 2012 crop than 2011.......since Iowa has a Sept 1 cutoff on rent terminations, a lot of rents for the 2011 crop year were set in August 2010 before grains rallied sharply......and weren't changed all that much......then, in August 2011 crop prices were at a high point......

net result-----landlords were looking for some catch-up in rents if only modest adjustments had been made for the 2011 growing season...

in my opinion, a lot of $35-50+/acre changes...in Iowa...

[Mike NCIA]

I am not really up on the seed supply but there was talk of poor production for many companies this year.  Also I would think any carryover production has been cleaned out of the system by now. And lastly, the dry weather in South America has reduced the seed crop down therre.  Were is the seed supply to come from for this kind of record planting?

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Yes rents went up.......but the balance sheets and rents favored corn in 2011, the move up in rents will likely not buy any on the fence acres..........flat black top end Iowa dirt is running at capacity.......

[small dog]

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@Mizzou_Tiger wrote:
Yes rents went up.......but the balance sheets and rents favored corn in 2011, the move up in rents will likely not buy any on the fence acres..........flat black top end Iowa dirt is running at capacity.......

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here in nw Iowa corn on corn last year was a big flop i haven't talked to anybody that is going that direction this year

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Bingo.......COC is a risk on multiple levels........between yield penalty, more management and inputs, and insect management with CRW........7 corn helps that cause.......5 does not.......even if soya are 11......... I still see corn acres in IA and IL being flat or even down a touch unless corn prices move hard in the right direction the next three months.....