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Contributor

Observations from a cynical speculator...

1 - The Fed action keeps the dollar weak. A weak dollar means higher grain prices, as buyers buy.

2 - Corn planting is way behind by any definition, and next Monday's crop progress report will show it.

3 - The cold wet weather in the corn belt has subsided for the moment, but it is still a weather market.

 

4 - Much of the press, and many analysts are predicting $10-$12 corn, before we even touch $8...

 

5 - The CME & CFTC will expand the corn limits to 50 cents, which helps funds, & hurts small specs.

 

6 - There is a shortage of corn, and the demand is very strong. Let's call it a bull market.

7 - The milder weather coming will soon evolve into a summer heat wave / drought situation = bullish.

8 - The overview for corn is very bullish indeed. And so why did we see a near limit move today?

9 - These huge index funds are taking month-end profits a day early, and have wiped out small specs.

10 - I went long today, based on the above points, and now I've lost all my April profits. Poof. Gone!

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21 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Observations from a cynical speculator...

Here are a few things that scare me:  Point 4.  In 2008, all we heard was $10 corn even though we hadn't touched $8.  I think we know how that turned out.  Point 7:  why are you projecting a drought or a summer heat wave?   

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Contributor

Re: Observations from a cynical speculator...

GoredHusker -

The reason I am "predicting" a heat wave / drought situation this summer in the corn belt is the same reason I predicted cold, wet weather this during spring planting season: It almost always happens. It is "normal", just a freezing blizzards are normal in the winter...

The questions I now have to answer for myself is this: Just exactly who, when and why did ALL of these huge funds decide that delayed planting is now fully priced in? And how did this limit down move happen so suddenly, in spite of all the other bullish factors on the open today?

The mass exit from the corn market today, precisely as I went long, was like a fire in a movie theater, and from my point-of-view, I am suspicious that trading has become a manipulated rigged con game... It absolutely has destroyed any possibility for a small speculator to make money. If you are a fund, you simply follow the herd and wipe everyone else out with no regard...

 

So, the corn crop is only 9% planted, compared to last year at 46%, and a 5-year average of 23%, and we are locked limit down! How ya gonna trade that? These funds have decided your fate.

 

Can you spell "collusion"?  

Senior Contributor

Re: Observations from a cynical speculator...

when are they coming out with 50 cent limits?????  

Thats just ridiculous In my opinion.............

 

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Observations from a cynical speculator...

Collusion or deep pockets? They would look the same. And yes, they act in concert as they have similar models that are programmed to follow the trends QUICKLY.

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Contributor

Re: Observations from a cynical speculator...

Palouser -

Appreciate your comments...that collusion and deep pockets are cut from the same piece of cloth, so to speak. However, I believe that these huge funds do not follow trends, they make the trends. The trend today is clearly down, and the funds have created that trend. They certainly didn't follow me, as I am long, and beaten up very badly indeed. Then afterwards, we will be told that the planting delays are now fully priced-in. This news follows the trend they created. If a small speculator could simply get on the side of the funds, then you could survive, but this is not possible, even with 50-50 odds...trust me, I know, as I do this 2 shifts a day, and have been at the game for 38 years! These markets are broken. All of them, including the silver trade, which is simply another bubble waiting to be pricked by the big guys...

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Senior Contributor

Re: Corn deal is so supposedly bullish

that things simply CANNOT truely be that good.

 

This deal could sell off a couple $.

 

What good is corn? well it's good for ethanol mostly and the usa consumers are not likely to be using much gas this year.

 

Gas usage has dropped each of the last 7 weeks strait ( that is a TREND btw ), and consumers say they are NOT going far if anywhere for the vacation season ( no sense in getting hung up way out there with some $5 and maybe $6 gas ).

 

USA govt and spin sources tell us the econ is great and the consumer can take $5 gas in stride.

Anybody stupid enough to believe the afore ...maybe has a touch to much "trickle down jingle" in their personal pockets.

 Perhaps the afore thus forgets that 90 to 95% of most common folks in the usa do NOT have that luxury ( if even a supposed decent usa job that pays permanent partime help kinda dough ).

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Corn deal is so supposedly bullish

the parinoid a

nned big specs to blame.


conspiracy.............


BTW there are no shorts on a limit down day.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Corn deal is so supposedly bullish

jrw, try the long side again late friday or monday, the wave counts best as a 2 bottom forming. and wave 3 is the sweet spot of a structure. you were just a couple of days too early. as always fwiw and be safe.

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Contributor

Re: Observations from a cynical speculator...

Dapper-7:

Thanx for your encouragement and your wave analysis. This corn crop is only 9% in the ground, and I am long at 759...I will ride this thing out until I break even or get wiped off the map. I simply do not care anymore, as the small, individual speculator absolutely cannot earn a living in these broken, manipulated markets that are totally dominated by these huge funds. They sold over 22,000 contracts on Thursday, which is the sole & direct cause of a locked limit down day in a bull market. That is 11,000,000 bushels!! I hope they enjoy their profits, while the rest of the guys suffer the defeat of this manipulation. I call 'em as I see 'em, and this one is collusion. Period.

Artiface - Thank you for your reply which is incomprehensible. What is your point?

Goodnite to all, & many thanx to Marketeye Mike for all his great reporting and efforts on our behalf.

JRW

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