October Report

[giolucas]

Just FYI

Yesterday, Jacquie Voeks from Stewart-Peterson said the following:

A historical analysis was completed for the October Report from 2000 to 2014 and below is the analysis:

For Soybeans:  On day of report we have been 57% positive  and 43% negative.  On average, the October report brings 25 cents price increase when it is bullish and 23 cents down when bearish.  Two weeks after this report the price is usually 64% higher. 

For Corn: On day of report, we have been 43% positive and 57% negative.  On average, the October report brings  17 cents price increase when it is bullish  and 8 cents down when it is bearish. Two weeks after this report the price is usually 53% higher.   

The October report is the most volatile for the year on average for BEANS.  

[BA Deere]

There`s alot of beans sitting naked in the elevator in the no storage grace period and most of the owners around here are saying it was their best bean crop ever.  Not necessarily a good perch to be sitting on.

[timetippingpt]

So, to put it in simple terms, there is basically no statistical tendency for this report in the past. I mean "53% of the time you are higher in 2 weeks" that is about as close to 50-50 as you can get in such a small data set.

[roarintiger1]

All you need to know is.......There is another USDA report.......and another good chance the traders will take the market lower after the report is released......no matter what the report says.

[glenlivet18]

So, to put it in simple terms, there is basically no statistical tendency for this report in the past. I mean "53% of the time you are higher in 2 weeks" that is about as close to 50-50 as you can get in such a small data set.

That's not what it says.

[clayton58]

Reading the original post as it is written say that two weeks after the report corn is 53% higher.  That means $5.80  corn in two weeks???  How do you read it???

[cityslicker]

Probably that the prices is higher after 2 weeks 53% of the time so a little over 50-50 and beans HIGHER 645 of the time. That's my guess. Seems to make sense

[cityslicker]

64% - didnt hit the shift

[giolucas]

Sorry about  the confusion, I should have gone to school to learn how to wright.  🙂

What I meant was, Two Weeks after the report the price of corn and soybeans is higher than the price on the day of the report.  For corn it has happened  53 times out of 100  and for soybeans it has happened 64 times out of a 100.   

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

Roy Smith says the soybean low is usually the first week in October in his area of SE Nebraska.  My broker says the soybean low is more like that latter part of October.

No matter what, I'll likely lift my hedges on soybeans shortly after the report.  Maybe corn, too.

It does appear that the Oct report is pretty volatile.