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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Ohio crop tour results

2016 Ohio Crop Tour Summary 

AgroLiquid_PositiveThe 2016 growing season started wet and cool then turned hot and dry in many areas — a classic worst-case scenario for corn and soybeans. There were certainly some examples that showed up in fields on the 2016 I-75/I-71 Ohio Crop Tour displaying evidence of those challenging conditions. But, at the same time, we saw many more examples of how solid farm management practices made the most of some challenging weather situations and others capitalized on timely rains. The Tour was sponsored by AgroLiquid.

 

 

In the West, the I-75 group had an average corn yield over both days of the Ohio Crop Tour of 148 bushels. Rather than break it down by days, the group felt it would be more appropriate to break the yields up geographically with corn yields north of I-70 in some of the tougher growing conditions averaging 134 bushels per acre and yields south of I-70 (where there was generally more rain in July) averaging 180 bushels.

 

The Eastern leg of the Ohio Crop Tour also averaged 148 bushels over the two days. Day 1 in the East averaged 160 bushels and Day 2 averaged 151 bushels, an opposite yield trend of the West.

In total, corn and soybean fields were sampled in 44 Ohio counties. The formula used in estimating corn yields is accurate plus or minus 30 bushels for the areas of the fields sampled.

 

 

The Ohio average corn yield from the tour is 148 bushels. Soybeans were generally poor to average in the north and generally improved in southern Ohio, but with the recent rains Ohio’s soybeans have significant upside potential.

 

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How can you take 160 & 151 and come up with 148 average?  How much alcohol was involved in that calculation?

 

Then also have a 30 by + or - margin of error....bet I can do that good from the road at the speed limit.

 

 

 

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2 Replies
hardnox
Advisor

Re: Ohio crop tour results

PF sorta does that too.

 

The observations can be interesting but at the end they appear to use a magic 8 ball to come up with a number that appears to generally be calculated to not make them look stupid either way.

 

BTW, whatever these Ohio observations might mean they appear to be be mildly supportive of USDA #'s, at least suggesting that it isn't a wipeout.

 

What was the year when we had the Great Illinois Drought where a pocket of W IL/SE IA was very dry and all we heard here was how devastating it was and how the national crop was going to be highly affected?

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: Ohio crop tour results

A careful application of one of the standard corn yield estimation methods will get you to within about 10% either way. But at 200 that is a range from 180 to 220.*

 

The last 10% is made by kernel weight which is entirely a swag based on conditions. If there isn't a lot of N deficiency, disease pressure, hot weather during late fill (nights particularly) then lean to the high side or vice versa.

 

*based on the little I've seen and what I've heard from reputable sources, kernel counts won't be record high based on both pop and kernels/ear. If we make 175 it will be based on good health/finish that produces good kernel weight and the fact that almost everybody is chipping in, of more accurately few are dragging hard on the average.

 

In 2010 when things were lush and ratings were high, those limiting conditions were evident late season- a wet June/July made for a lot of N loss, diseases getting an earlier start.

 

 

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