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Never say a market can't do something because those are the ones that will kill you. I guess it could go to $50, or higher.


But other than the fact that the market was very short the fundamental case seems pretty thin. There doesn't seem to be much likelihood of global production cuts any time soon. US production may begin to fall significantly in a year or so but the tanks and tankers are all going to be full before that.


My guess is that what you have here is The Ususal Suspects creating a short squeeze so that the oil drillers who are at imminent risk can make some stock offerings to bottom pickers. The purpose being to get the banks off the hook and unload the losses onto widows and orphans.


Also, the epic short squeeze in stocks ran concurrently as that big worry was temporarily removed. Basically the same deal- an opportunity for "the smart money" to exit.


Way too early to call either short squeeze over- they're by definition fierce and unrelenting. But when they're over they're over.


I gues that's the biggest hobgoblin in my worry closet as far as grains are concerned.

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2 Replies

gold and silver

You may be able to count a major bottom behind in gold. But the commitment of traders is starting to flash some warning signals- best guess is that late buyers get fleeced. Having said that I wouldn't at all rule out new highs here- there's a lot of emotion behind this thing.


Silver chart looks much weaker and the COT's even more overbought.


I wouldn't be shocked by a divergence in the two PMs- a deep retracement in G and new lows in SI.

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Honored Advisor

Re: gold and silver

Like the short side of gold as a way to defend against another melt down in the markets that might not have bottomed yet.


Everyone normally forgets that soy topped last, years after wheat and crude, thus, it likely to bottom last as well. just an observation.

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