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Veteran Advisor

Old crop price peak poll

what price(s) will old C/B peak, incl Sep contracts and when?

 

come on, give her a crack................

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11 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Old crop price peak poll

7.75 and 16.97 board prices in early July in reaction to June Stox report. Of course I pulled these numbers out of left field.... No research backing this up.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Old crop price peak poll

NO, that's good,

 

but i'm assuming the implication is higher if July's hot/dry before corn pollination?

 

could corn retest last summer highs?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Old crop price peak poll

$8.25 corn

$17.15 beans

 

Of course you are still gonna have to add about 50-75 cents on top of that for the basis.....    Smiley Wink

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Honored Advisor

Re: Old crop price peak poll

Well the ethanol plant didn't flinch at the $8.10 they payed in May, and the July basis is $1.15+------------- is saying "Demand seems to have a very healthy voice".-------------------- The check went through ------------------ so I am thinking your not needing much of a glitch to be right roarin'.  Even if we get an average corn crop of 86 m acres and 140 bu corn.--------------------- I am talking real, no smoke in your eyes, averages.  We aren't going to see a big crop til we can get the guys on the tough ground involved.

 

As long as there are marginal  0's out there to average in,  these "pay more for seed" yields are not going to be any more than bureaucratic fiction.  Good averages are built on the weakest producers.  Our county for example raises good 240+ corn on the best irrigated ground in good years and 80 on dryland.  We are over half dry land acres and haven't cut a dryland crop in three years and feeling good about 190 on irrigated.  Thats a 85 bushel average for the last three years compared to a normal 160.

When eastern colorado starts raising 60+ bu corn again dryland(and they can) we might see those pipe dream averages in a non-fiction publication.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Old crop price peak poll

Just got a text that I only have 60 acres of corn left to be planted on the Ks farms. We fully expect it to be non harvested due to drought.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Old crop price peak poll

Hobby I hope it rains like hell and you harvest a bumper crop.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Old crop price peak poll

    My own thought would be, we are going to need at least an average crop,and a bin buster back to back reguardles of outside influence,(SA,And others,) to bring corn and soy down to true bearish levels. Demand distriction is all redundit when it comes down to it!No one wants to go back to eating roots!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Old crop price peak poll

sw,

I had figured TRUE, PLOTTED ON A CHART trendline yield since 1960 to be about 150 +/-3.

 

we are close--I was thinking we begin this yr minus12-15 bu b/c of late planting = 141-132 with normal or average climate (which we are far from) IMHO....

 

THEN 97m ac plant - 3 or 4 due to lateness = 86m.

 

beans been buying ac, too since May 6-7. 

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Advisor

Re: Old crop price peak poll

Sw--where you located?
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