On Jan. 11 at 11 a.m. CDT, USDA will release five reports

[rswfarms]

On Jan. 11 at 11 a.m. CDT, USDA will release five reports: Crop Production, Annual Crop Production, Winter Wheat Seedings, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Grain Stocks. With these 5 reports coming out this Friday, I am curious as to what action plans you guys are doing before the reports come out. Planning on selling some cash corn/soybeans, buying some put options, pricing some 2013 crop, etc? Since this is a very big report day, I would be interested in knowing what anybody plans on doing before the report is released in regard to marketing. It is sometimes good to hear a variety of opinions on what action we should be doing before Jan. 11. Also if you have some opinions, maybe you could also say the percentages of your production of 2012 crops that you currently have sold, and also the percentage of 2013 you may also have sold. Or maybe you just plan to ride the report though with no action plan on your part. Anyway, I would be very interested knowing what you guys plan to do. As mentioned many times, it is possible that someone has a good marketing plan for this big report day that may help us make good decisions. Thanks in advance for your thoughts and opinions.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

go out thrusday night and not stop till Friday at noon...........

[booked]

Well for what it is worth some where this morning I heard on some marking report that.

In each of the last 6 january reports we have experienced limit moves that have carried through to the close in 5 of those years.

Does seam that would not be right but that is what I believe I heard. Anyone with more time care to research it and get back?

[GoredHusker]

In the past six years, this report has caused a limit move five times with two being limit higher and three being limit lower.  If one has either short or long positions going into this report, I'd look to protect those positions via the up front serial options.  I'm not where I'd like to be in terms of the 13' crop, but that has a lot more to do with water allocation unknowns rather than profit potential. 

[rswfarms]

Sounds like a good action plan Tiger. Come up to the Twin Cities and we can go out to the "GIRLIE" Bars and really get hammered. I will buy the beer. A number of good "GIRLIE" Bars in the Twin Cities, but it has been a few years since I have checked them out. Also, there used to be a number of them in Des Moines, Iowa too, but it has been 5 years or so since I went to the Iowa ones. There used to be a really good one in Des Moines across from the big Firestone Tire Plant. However the owner was a very shady guy and he got killed just walking out of his Girlie Bar one night. 3 guys emptied there AR-15 rifles at him and he had like 30 bullet holes in him. Needless to say, he was dead even before he fell down in the parking lot. Think it was one of those Drug-related shootings since this guy was a very shady character.

[rswfarms]

Yes, GORDHUSKER, we have that possible 2013 drought situation to worry about this year. We have basically zero subsoil moisture in Northern Iowa, our tiles have not run any water for over 7 months now. This hasn't happened ever before in the last 26 years. In the 1988 drought our tiles at least run a little bit in the fall of 1988, but not one drop of water in the fall of 2012. Even the old-timers are saying this is worse than the 1950's Iowa drought. Hard to price any 2013 crop when you have this weather hanging over your head. I am concerned if the drought continues and with no subsoil moisture, Northern Iowa could see sub-100bu yields. And this is high-quality farmland that does 200+bu with normal moisture.

[Hobbyfarmer]

The chances of going into the spring in Iowa without most of the high producing ground in decent shape moisture wise is odds I'd play.

Tile lines running is an indication of excessive moisture. Our chances of not getting the top 3 or 4 ft with a nice moisture profile is slim to none and slim is packing his bags now. It is just Jan 7th, 90 days too early to start crying, and 120 before serious sets in. East of hwy 71 has lots of time before the fat lady sings.

[rswfarms]

Notice the last sentence below on separating corn stocks by crop year. The USDA has really screwed this up in the past and I have a feeling since the corn shut-down early this year from the drought and was harvested much earlier than normal, this could be a big problem on this Friday's report. Article is below:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Allendale, a brokerage services firm in McHenry, Illinois, will be closely watching two of the five reports released next week. "For corn, we’ll be watching the quarterly Grain Stocks report," says Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale. The Grain Stocks reports for the 2009-10 crop all held surprises on U.S. corn stocks. "We have little confidence in the trade’s ability to guess these numbers, especially with the early harvest," says Nelson.

USDA’s grain stocks survey specifically asked how much grain producers had in the bin as of September 1 from the 2012-13 corn crop as opposed to old-crop inventory, but with 1 billion bushels of corn harvested prior to September 1, Nelson says USDA has had trouble separating stocks by crop year.

[rswfarms]

Yes, hobbyfarmer, the ethanol plants in Northern Iowa are currently quoting around $5.50 for 2013 corn to be delivered right off the combine. With a 220bu yield and a $5.50 price equals $1,210/acre in corn sales, take off $600/acre in my input and Custom Farming costs, I am left with a $610/acre profit and add my $16/acre in Direct Subsidies and that is $626/acre in rough profit. That's not to bad, however, say I foreward contract 80% of my 2013 corn crop, but the drought continues and I lose 40% of my corn yield, I will have to buy corn to fill my foreward corn contracts with the ethanol plant. That would not be fun since corn could be $10+ a bushel if we get another cornbelt drought in 2013. So yes, what's a guy supposed to do? I don't have the answers, but I would hate to buy $10 corn to be able to meet my foreward corn crop contracts, that would be very, very, expensive to do.

[425Cat]

And what would MRS RSW think about that.??