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Honored Advisor

One weather event away.......

........from a massive grain crop rally.      No, I am not predicting this event.    Just wondering what happens with an early September freeze event in the great midwest?       But the results of this happening could be catastrophic.        Thoughts?

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Advisor

Re: One weather event away.......

Dont even need a freeze . The eastern belt is just gettiing saturated taking bu away every day except on well tiled sandy loam

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Honored Advisor

Re: One weather event away.......

Watching our smallish corn roll up in 100 degree heat and seeing how small it is --------- the event may have already happened.  Just needs to finish with an early fall.

 

We(sw ks) just went to 10 inches below normal rainfall by the 4th of July with even less to come for the third year in a row.  No dry land crops again.  Unfortunately it is beginning to look like the new normal, but historically we did not go one year without a crop of something in the 1930's.  The only year locally without a dryland crop previous was 1956.  If current pattern holds we will be finishing the third year in a row without either a fall or spring  dry land crop worth cutting.

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Re: One weather event away.......

Right now it's a garden here in Ontario.

However, some guys were lazy on n top ups after leaching. Also, a few guys installed hard pans in their fields. These fields are under drought stress.

If we don't get a big rain in bout a week (maybe more???) I'll start rolling up too. Massive wheat crop is set though.

Corn is about waist to chin high. Just phenomenal and absolutely ideal growing conditions since solstice. Rainfall is always just light.
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Senior Contributor

Re: One weather event away.......

Not sure what part of Ontario you are from but not all of Ontario is dry or even close to being dry.

We are well above average rainfall probably 50% over average for the season so far and others near me have had more than I have.

Rainfall of 50-75 mm in short time periods do ot come 'lightly' and leave lasting signs of drown outs and yellow crops in most fields.

Lots of hay still uncut and way over mature because there has been little dry weather to cure it. Lots more that was cut is worth little now after sitting through days of rain before storing IF it ever got dry enough to store.

 

This from an area north of London and we have been dry compared to Kent and Essex counties and even parts of Lambton, Middlesex and Elgin.

Even Oxford couty looks like it has had more rain by the amount of drownouts than we have had.

 

We sure are not dry here.

Wheat looks good but quality will start to suffer without dry weather.

 

BTW heard that at least one headland was combined in Essex today but they left lots of mud on the road when they quit and it has been raining down there since mid afternoon.

Saw a picture of a cornfield near Chatham mostly out in tassel this morning. It did not look dry either.

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Senior Contributor

Re: One weather event away.......

Back to tell you that it has just started raining here at 11pm so tomorrow my rain gauge will have rainfall to record for the 6th day in July and I believe tomorrow is the 7th day in July.

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Advisor

Re: One weather event away.......

How much old corn is sitting around up there farmer??

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Re: One weather event away.......

Canuck, I had heard that the extreme south west was wet. Here in the more central and eastern areas we aren't getting anything ever.

I guess you have struggled w planting this year. I didn't: April caused serve flooding, but it stopped raining in may.

Anyways, I am currently in 4 counties, and these are just my observations: the extension staff make it seem like planting problems were minimal. Lambton/niagara and all those clays always struggle
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Re: One weather event away.......

425: enough to be 55 over. It's not 1.50 over like you guys. Some southern areas had county averages of 200 bpa last yr. the whole county. Mine was slightly below avg. some were completely wiped out like renfrew county.

Overall, we still had 150 bpa+- provincially. Many e plants were closed/ limited operation. Has to go somewhere guys, and the word has been export since harvest: jri richArdson in Hamilton and Parrish and heimbecker
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Senior Advisor

Re: One weather event away.......

How do I market for such an eventuality?  How likely is it?  How much of my crop should be reserved to deal with this contingency?

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