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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

OptionEye.....Aug 22nd

Good morning.

 

Pro Farmer tour and a litlle rain putting a slightly bearish tone to things this morning.

 

Corn down 4, beans down 12 and wheat down 4.

 

We can't seem to find a trend in either the weather or the crop tours. On a yearly chart we have camped out between $4.50 and $5.00 in Dec corn. It looks as though that low last week will hold for a while. That hasn't stopped some put buyers trying to pick up some cheap puts for a slow grind lower in corn over the harvest season.

 

Beans have seen some bullish trade with upside interest as the frost and dry weather concerns look to affect yields more there than in corn.

 

In other news, taper talk has everyone's knickers in a twist. With no real 'new' news the 10 year has sold off to levels that are almost 1.00% higher than in the beginning of the year and now stand at 2.92% which in percentage terms is a significant move. The wires will be full of folks trying to read the tea leaves but leave it at this - we will have no real news until we see the economic indicators get better.

 

Gold is up $4.36 to $1371.11 and oil is little changed at $104.11 up .26 cents.

 

Jobless claims this morning were not great and a little more than expected. Where is this turnaround in the economy going to come from?

 

 

 

 

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6 Replies
Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye.....Aug 22nd

Economic improvement will come from the middle class - when things get better for them. It's not getting better for them. Stagnating and falling wages and no help offered. High unemployment for new college grads and bigger educational debt.

 

So, no, improvement isn't on the way.

pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye..... economics 001

The economy is running 16.5 trillion.   + 3 or +1 % GDP has no effect on grain consumption.  College grads with tecnicsl degrees are doing very well.  Penn State, Food Science and AgBioSci had 100% placements in the last 2years. Vs the higher growth of the GWB Jr yrs, the economy is flattish, slow growing,   but still 16.5TRILLION. Corp profits are blooming, corp cash is record high, borrowing costs record low. The Media pushes a sour economy, because that is demand, many can't won't acknowledge  it is good even if their situation isn't good.  Equity mkt has been a bull for 5 yrs, few notice.

 

raw commodities in real terms go down over time, as always. We saw 2-3 yrs of Wx harmed crops and resuting higher prices, new era? never, once planted acres expand and mother nature cooperates tgrain oli seed prices trend to  nearer the cost of production.

Southern hemisphere is coming on big time,   reactors to the 8$+  wheat pprices o fa few yrs,   now will self ruin by over producing.

Help  the process, help hasten it,, next phaae is  drop, drop,   until use is up or more likely pdod goweth down.   Wheat demand is static, rises modestly over time.  2013 14 will see much less wheat for feed, which may reduce use vs 12-13 and add to  ES.

 

What can you do with 200 million BU of SRW,  unneeded?  

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye..... economics 001

Pritch, I'll humor you as 'facts' to you are like rubber bands.

 

WHY would corps sit on all that cash if things are so good? Why don't they pour it all into production of consumer goods if everything is going so swimmingly ?????  😉

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nitefarm
Advisor

Re: OptionEye..... economics 001

YEA and why record no. on food stamps.Why real unemployment double digits.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye..... economics 001

Because food stamps is an economic stimulus program.         Smiley Wink

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye..... economics 001

That too! And humanitarian. Two, two goals in one!!!!!

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