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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

OptionEye....Aug 2nd

Good morning.

 

Stuff happening all over the place.

 

Euro getting hit on Draghi's plan about another plan. No significant action causing stocks to slide.

 

Corn is lower again with soybeans and wheat also negative.

 

Half of US counties now considered disaster areas and we still feel eerily quiet in the pits. Chatter now beginning to focus on harvested acres rather than bpa.

 

Is it over for corn? How critical are the next few weeks for beans? Those are the key questions on the floor here in Chitown. I don't believe the government will do anything significant to help alleviate any price spikes. They haven't moved on the 'fiscal cliff' so I expect nothing anywhere else.

 

 

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12 Replies
COrnguy
Contributor

Re: OptionEye....Aug 2nd

This is not "your grandfather's August" regarding soybeans, and especially corn. Bet we are 2+ weeks ahead of normal, so that puts beans maturity are close to mid-August. Damage is done, stick a fork in it. Can't ignore the earlier planting too.

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p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye....Aug 2nd

Scott...... IMO..... This market is what I call "handcuffed".......

This market has changed so fast that most people either can not or will not believe it  and therefore will do nothing until they are forced to do so.....p-oed

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Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: OptionEye....Aug 2nd

Looking at the soybeans around here yesterday..they were all turning their leaves over hoping to make it to the next dew. We're expecting another 2 days of 90+ degree temperatures before a chance of a thundershower Sunday. After that it's cooler, but without rain...no pods are going to fill. The soybeans have already dropped and aborted a lot of flowers..they're shorter than usual, and probably more mature than normal too. If I had to guess, I'd say we're looking at a 30% reduction in bean yield in the country this year....and that's being veeeery optimistic. Can we supply the soybean needs of China with a 33/34 bpa crop??? Not likely, and Brazil isn't really going to catch them up either.

 

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too close for comfort
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye....Aug 2nd

Is the potential of the lifting of the E mandate at any time enough to hold prices down? 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye....Aug 2nd

14,180 train car loads of corn sold to Mexico (4200 bu /car). 59,6 million bu.

 

Another way to look at that is 142 fully loaded trains headed south.

 

Will be quite a wait at the RR crossing as they go by.

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Jason-B-Meeker
Frequent Contributor

Is corn 'cooked'?

Scott Shellady's newest video report:

Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Is corn 'cooked'?

My conclusions more or less match Scott's conclusions on where we are going though I think the market will probably get the most crazy in December, maybe even early January.

 

I have a fundamental disagreement on the idea the strength of the $ will affect U.S. exports. It would if there were optional origins, read as 'excess supplies', elsewhere. There really won't be though there will be desperate measures taken. Food and feed will be inelastic up into the medium future.

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nwobcw
Advisor

Re: OptionEye....Aug 2nd

 Pup I haven't been down your way in a while but crops here must be similar to yours.  I had 3.4" rain in July so it must be the high temps hurting us.  This fact surprised me:  The newspaper stated last year the July temp averaged 1 degree more than this year.  Believe it?

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Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: OptionEye....Aug 2nd

Yes I do NWO, I think the amount of rain we had last year allowed the corn to respire enough to keep it from being under as much stress. I had some popcorn last year...that had pollination problems from the heat..and it pollinated about the 3rd week of July. The popcorn I have this year has pollination problems all the way through it..from popcorn that was planted the 3rd of May..to some that was planted the 16th. I'm thinking I'll only harvest about 35-40% of a normal yield..and that is if it rains for the rest of August and September....

 

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