OptionEye.....Dec. 30th

[Mizzou_Tiger]

SA situation is not a rumor........ Balance sheet is bullish without help...... What if the trade was pricing in declines in demand and excess production..........but instead gets increased demand and reduced supply..........o wait we are talking about s and d which has nothing to do with price and fundamentals.........hahahaha......

[sw363535]

Happy new year Mizzou,

Thanks for the evening ------ ready for a good 2012.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Yep......you too....

[jrsiajdranch]

WOW are you guys beliveing the stuff you  are writing? 

Price has everything to do with consumption!

IF not then why did folks cut back so drastically on cheese purchases in 08?

IT wasn't becasue of drought or because of supply it was a desrease in Demand brought on by the inability for the consumer to purchase the product!

What you guys have experienced is the wonderful coupling of a product to the inflationary dollar.  This thread has been a hoot to read. Your collective economic reality is akin to my geek cousin who thinks that star trek is for real!

There wouldn't have been a Arab summer if the guy in Tuisia hadn't set himself on fire to protest high food costs!

Folks are starving all over the world today and even here in the good ole USA becasue they can't afford food!

They have a demand they have a supply but no ability to purchase.  Do you think that this will go on forever?  

MY GOD this is unreal!

Bet you guys think you deserve those direct payments still too.

[bullrider685114]

I agree jdjrsranch price DOES have a bearing on consumption! Markets are affected by Goverment policy, shenanigans in the futures market, and a herd mentality, and with electronic stops underpinning the futures market more and more. If one leg is removed from the proverbial "stool", supply and demand will matter not. Price will return in some form but will be closely tied  (Cash on Delivery)to the supply or demand of a given commodity.

http://discussions.agweb.com/showthread.php?14341-On-Cascading-Counter-Party-Risk-amp-Economic-Treas...

[sw363535]

the discussion was global and large volume internationally traded commodities--an area where meat and animal products have not been in the picture long enough to have much of a history.  It was a grain based discussion.

You are absolutely right --locally and individually, as I stated, you have nothing without price, supplying demand doesnt happen.  

As you example of cheese--- I also start applying the small market dynamics to the big picture and get lost when it doesn't work out.

Glad u were entertained.    and if your geek cousin buys the dvd set------it is real.

There is always another view--------example your fire bug---------made that choice not because of the price of food, as u say, but because of his lack of access to it.  That is not an impoverished country, just an impoverished population within that population.

What u and I just did was spin.  

The Arab "climate" is 100% a political problem  and food access and affordability are part of that.

Starvation-- yes it will go on forever----no matter what the price of grain-----world set record low prices for grain in the pre WW2 era and world hunger was at a rate much greater any time since.  And this too was mostly brought on by political choices not the price of grain.  one small part---Russia made the political decision to sell their food supply to build an army with the $$, letting millions starve to death, because they were considered potential opponents.  The price of food is seldom the reason for starvation--especially in Africa.

direct pmts comment------did I say meat is too expensive??   you didn't get that from me ----------neither of those thoughts

Thanks for reading --------it did ramble a bit.

[roarintiger1]

wow jr.   those folks just stated their opinions and just like you everybody has one.   I will bite though on your thought.  Why did cheese  get so expensive in 2008?  I'm guessing it had something to do with supply and demand......and transportation costs.  Corn was not the only commodity to  go up in price in 2008 by the way.

I don't think any corn producer who produced corn in the 80s and 90s for $1.50 per bushel has to apologize for getting a good price today for their corn.  Nor, should they apologize fro getting the government's direct payment.  In the 80s and 90s, producers were forced into the government programs to merely survive.  

It will be interesting to hear the high market whiners after the direct payments and the blenders' credits go away.  Just what will they have left to complain about?   Oh, that's right......crop insurance.

Here's to a prosperous 2012....without so much government!............Happy New Year Everyone!

[Palouser]

Jr, if you look at the statistics and commentary on cheese I believe you took a bigger hit on price than consumption, aparrently for supply reasons too. Cheaper imports, especially from New Zealand, over production, and so on.

http://future.aae.wisc.edu/data/annual_values/by_area/2178?tab=sales

http://milkprice.blogspot.com/2009/11/what-influences-cheese-consumption.html

But cheese is not grain, just as meat is not grain. They are incrementally value added products. During the Asian crisis of the 90's SE Asia cut back on imported pork but they maintained or increased grain imports - though the buy side at the time reported the opposite regarding grain. And yes, prices dropped under that illusion.

All I can say is try and draw up a chart of global grain demand and price and you'll see little significant relationship with price as it relates to demand. Food is a strict requirement. And yet one can only eat so much food. Grain is the basic building block. In our culture cheese is probably one step removed. It might not be quite the case in Switzerland or Greece where pasture is a more important resource than grain growing area because of the resulting cultural component in the diet.