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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

OptionEye.....Is Back!

Gentlemen and Ladies...After a brief hiatus in London and fixed income, I am back in the agricultural community. Look forward to liaising with you all.

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11 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: OptionEye.....Is Back!

Welcome Back!  It's a great asset to this board to have you in-play here. When you get your wits about you, tell us what you think about how nervous, or not, the market remains about those farmers that can't get in the field. And here is why I ask. My catch phrase this growing season is "This year's different". It's different because tight supplies has the USDA saying we better get 92.0 million corn acres. It's different because the world is telling the U.S. farmer it needs all the grain it can grow. This year is different because there never has been so much pressure put on the 'fringe' states to produce. And guess what, those 'fringe' states, the ones with historically less yielding ground, are the exact ones that have farmers that can't get in the fields, due to relentless rainfall.

 

I know there has never been a year when we didn't get the crop planted. That's not what I'm saying. There never has been a year when the pressure and necessity to grow so much from every corner of this great big Corn Belt field. That's why I'm sticking with "This year's different". Again, welcome back and we look forward to your valued contribution OptionEye. Now, what say you?

 

Mike

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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....Is Back!

Well, I am glad this year is different. Then maybe I can make some money!

 

As for my views, I agree that the producer is under tremendous pressure to give us not just a big crop but a 'bumper' crop. And, to say the least, we have not gotten off to a great start. I also think that with the macro issues that we are facing as well as any other production supply chain interruptions, this market could be explosive.

 

The economy is limping along. More people are beating the QE3 drum everyday whether you agree with them or not. If we don't get exactly what we need, be ready for an extremely volatile summer. Even more so than we have seen so far.

 

Scott

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye.....Is Back!

I suppose the wedding. Hunh?

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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....Is Back!

I was the head bridesmaid.....

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hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: OptionEye.....Is Back!

Loved the dress

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Mark, ncIA
Frequent Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....Is Back!

Welcome back Scott.  I, for one, like you the way you used to be.  Gives me a queezy feeling thinking about you in a bridesmaid dress there big guy, ?? 

 

Anyhow, wondering if you'd care to share any ideas of how a farmer might take advantage of all this volitility, if he's willing to defend it, without getting too greek?

 

Thanks,

 

Mark

 

 

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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....Is Back!

My personal opinion is that the producer is sitting on a pretty good price for the underlying and I think there should always be some cover taken with put purchases.

 

Am I bullish? Yes. However, with the volatility of late you could go broke being right. The producer is in a unique position as he/she owns the underlying and is a natural long.

 

The higher we go the rougher the pullbacks will be. If you have halfway decent timing, you may even be able to scalp the puts or put spreads on these breaks.

 

Scott

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye.....Is Back!

Shellady`s back ♫  tell a friend ♪  yes he`s back ♫  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1Bm241Rri4

Sorry too many hours in the tractor  Smiley Happy

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crapgame
Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....Is Back!

Daddy's Home!!!!  Welcome back...just in time for a classic weather market!

 

the_shining-10805.jpg

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