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Senior Contributor

OptionEye....July 19th

Good morning.

 

One more hot day here in Chicago before we get some relief.

 

More rain sneaking into to the forecast again pressures corn overnight. Dec down 5 cents with beans up 5 and wheat up 1.

 

News for commodities is pretty thin this morning with headlines mostly dominated by corporate earnings. While most companies are beating EARNINGS forecasts, they are struggling with REVENUE numbers. The top line revenues have been lackluster but firms have been cutting and slashing staff and overheads to make the bottom line look better. We are hiring 150k per month, pumping $85B per month into the economy and the best we can do is a 1.50%-2.00% GDP??? IT's just not adding up. What are these new hires making?

 

The FED says that they are 'data dependent' citing unemployment and inflation as the two main drivers that will make their decisions for them on economic accommodation. Well, those two numbers aren't going to change significantly anytime soon so I believe that the FED will continue on this path with no change until late NEXT year.

 

China is a manufacturing powerhouse. They rival us in many categories but the one manufacturing number they are best at is their GDP. I don't believe it and I think that their banks are on the brink of a sub-prime like meltdown similar to our problems in 2008. Interesting how the 3 largest Chinese banks all did 'tech upgrades' to their ATM's at the end of the last quarter and none of their customers could take money out over the last weekend. None. Hhmmm

 

Anyway, maybe my imagination is my own worst enemy but I sure would like to see things getting better quicker.

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Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye....July 19th

Employers cutting salaries, benefits....Bottom line gets better workers have less disposable income.... Makes sense to me..... Cities going bankrupt..... Makes no difference as to why they are..... People are still getting creamed..... = Poor growth at best...... If your working and not having these things happening to you..... Life is pretty good..... p-oed 

 

PS..... I might add that it helps the stock price if ya have a few of em.....

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Veteran Advisor

Re: OptionEye....July 19th

Let's kick the can down the road a little bit more, maybe something will change over the weekend for the bears to chew on.  Every time a rain event is a non-event, means the the next event must be gigger to make up ofr what the last event didn't do.  We're taking this market down on nothing.  Why?  After the possible rain event on Sunday, Monday that might be a WCB event, mainly light and scattered, with an occasional heavier amount (3/4 of an inch) mixed in, it turns again dryer for the next 4 days.  And, this next hat hanging event is NOT going to make up for the weather systems that have already porduced, you guessed it - NOTHING THAT IS GOING TO BRAKE THIS CYCLE.

 

The rain hit somewhere though....Down we go....

 

Jen

Veteran Advisor

Re: OptionEye....July 19th

By the way, my spread trade, selling dec and buying sept is doing good.  My long dec corn, not so good right now, but I have faith in my forcasts.  And at some point, this market may need to be bought by those selling it.  I'll wait for that, and maybe scale in some more longs lower down.  And maybe buying some 5.50 calls is in order (Dec)

 

Jen

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye....July 19th

The CBOT does not HAVE to do anything, it can be done (and is) with basis.

 

kind of leaves the specs on the sideline.

 

The question becomes are they going to look around and notice the train has left the station?

 

The old saying goes something like this "The market will do whatever it has to, to prove the majority of the people wrong"

Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye....July 19th

The Fed is a weak and indirect tool whose efforts mainly have to be injected into the financial houses. Want change for money then Congress will have to do the lifting and at this point Congress is paralysed.

 

The middle class is tapped out and licking its wounds and will be for a long time. The problem is structural.

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