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Senior Contributor

OptionEye....July 3rd

Good morning and I think that the July 4th holiday could not describe things better. More deterioration. Stories of cutting corn for silage. Tons of yields below 100. Where will it all stop?

 

If the national yield is less than 150 we will have $9 corn and we always overshoot.

 

The disaster stories are really doing the rounds. And the specs really haven't gotten started yet.....

 

Hold on tight.

 

Scott

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3 Replies
Frequent Contributor

Re: OptionEye....July 3rd

"and the specs haven't even gotten started yet"

 

As bullish as things seem , and have seemed for a while, one has to ask why the specs aren'n this yet.

It raises red flags for me.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: OptionEye....July 3rd

Possible reasons the specs are late to the party.

 

1.  Soros said to go short grains a few weeks ago.  Even that money machine couldn't turn the market down.

 

2.  We have cried wolf so many times, they don't believe it any more.  Just like they didn't believe Brazil's disaster pictures last winter.

 

3.  Everyone has Euro disaster fever.  While it may cause a crash, the timing of that play can be so far off, you miss a big play up before the floor falls out.

 

4.  They are just as clueless as the rest of us.

 

5.  They are so busy playing the government TARP, and other Uncle Sam money plays, they missed the lion in the room.

 

6.  They can't hear the sucking sound in the auger, because of the fireworks for the 4th.

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye....July 3rd

Denial. The production from the Midwest has been so reliable, we are such a big production area. Major crop loses.nationally ..35-40% .. are deniable if real.
Drought down here is expected on occasion. Not Indiana or Illinois.
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