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Senior Contributor

OptionEye.....June 4th

Good morning.

 

Planting and emergence showed no shockers. Dec corn down 9 overnight.

 

Soybeans down 9 to 17 and wheat down 8. The dollar is a little stronger putting more pressure on commodities today.

 

Let's see if stocks can finish higher today for the 21st Tuesday in a row. Weird. Right now they are slightly lower. We are back into the 'bad news is good news' for the market mentality. Perverse but prevalent. This taper talk is way to premature.

 

The weather here in Chicago is finally almost comfortable. Sunny and 75. 

 

Gold down $11 to $1400 even. Bad ISM (manufacturing) numbers yesterday...wait for it.....actually helped stocks rally. The figures showed a contraction in manufacturing last month and the first contraction since November. It also was the slowest since 2009. Not good. Again, how can we talk of taper.

 

The crop is now in the ground and the 'mother nature' debate will begin. Will she cooperate? It's clear we are not off to a good start. This will give us fodder for debate all summer. I think yields and acres will be clipped a little from here but if we get good weather we will fill the bins.

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6 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: OptionEye.....June 4th

"The crop is now in the ground and the 'mother nature' debate will begin"

 

Wow, so Chicago is saying that 91% of the corn and 56% of the beans is all that is going to get put in the ground this year?  And the markets are down, crap, you can't make this stuff up....crazy denial mentality.  Lets see, we have the Jerry trying to get crop insurance changed...what a laugh, it is raining now, more rain this week, you can change the corn planting date all you want .  IT HAS TO DRY UP TO PLANT.   We had the import SA information.  Next will be something on ethanol.  Same song and dance, just another year.  I can handle the bad weather, comes with the job, but the BS is sometimes more than I can handle.

 

FWIW, it is not 'mother nature', it is God that controls the weather/and or the things that change weather.  Mother nature is about as accurate as the tooth fairy.

 

Scott, really appreciate your posts, but gotta call you on that statement.  Hopefully you were just talking about the crops on your farm.

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye.....June 4th

Yes, most the crop is in the ground........but is it gonna come up?     The mentality of the market needs to find some reality.

The market moves down big time on USDA's fantasy (no proof) predictions.......but the market assumes record production until proof is given for prices to rise.    (Moving down on fantasy and up on proof).

However, it's the only game in town and we have to play by their rules.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....June 4th

The crop is now in the ground and the 'mother nature' debate will begin. ,........Part of the crop is in the ground you mean.......We still have to get 33 million acres of beans planted for the first time and 8.7 million acres of corn, plus the million acres in Iowa that were lost to flooded fields last week. The fringe acres are all planted this 42 million acres yet to plant is in "ground zero" of historically the highest yielding areas. I am not talking market here, a pull back on the big run-up is to be expected. Along with a better weather forecast, I think the market is moving as expected, as they are "futures" not "today's". But lest you forgot in your post 42 million acres of unplanted prime farm ground is a far cry from in the ground......Good Day.......JP

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Veteran Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....June 4th

I appreciate the mention about my acres;-)

 

Yes the acres no one counts every year are now the reason the crop is made.

 

This is just the slingshot pulling back tighter so itthe rock travels further. August is gonna be crazy.  

 

 

But I haven't lifted hedges. Watching dollar value

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Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....June 4th

Sunshine, Lollipops &' Rainbows?
Finished up a week ago. Only to go back and find a 95a field on beans chewed up by slugs.
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Advisor

Re: OptionEye.....June 4th

Canuck, I think your wrong about the ont wheat: cool weather is low risk: many south west areas have sprayed. You must be further north or have late planted. Wheat: we shall see first spraying before the rain.

Ultimately, we have almost non existing disease pressure this year
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