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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 20th

Good morning. 

 

Beans down 4, corn down 2 and wheat up 2. 

 

Pro Farmer tour is underway and anecdotal evidence has the corn in great shape. This is the reason for the 2 cent sell off overnight. Today the tour hits Illinois and Iowa. I wonder what they will find....

 

The 10 year yield is rising to 2.41% as the market gets ready for the Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole conference and the release of Fed minutes today. 

 

Gold is at $1294.93 down .75 cents and oil is at $95.71 up $1.23. 

 

The dollar is stronger again this morning at 82.06 which is up .17. 

 

Stocks are slightly higher this morning after the Nasdaq hit 14 year highs and the Dow had its best two day performance in 4 months. I guess everthing is ok now so their is nothing to worry about. Hah. 

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2 Replies
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 20th

Ok Scott...I have read and listened to most of the data...you said..."has the corn crop in great shape".

 

I thought that so far, if you look at the sweet spot routes they take, the data just barely supports the current NASS number well under 170. The market has been trading at least 172 which the tour data pretty much rules OUT of the possible.

 

Just interesting how different well educated participants (us) can get an entirely different coclusion from the same data.

 

btw...them comparing against the 3 year average is just completely STUPID!  At least throw out 2012 for goodness sake. No human mind can look at the data that way and retain a sound view of it.

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aaron-neill
Veteran Contributor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 20th

Nothing statistically different that USDA yields at this point...figures at this point are all 4-6% higher than 1013 which puts it right in line with USDA yields.  Exception is South Dakota which is 10% higher but PF was off by 20bu last year.  Just a reminder there are no 173-175 yields showing up?  Anyone between the rows know this wasn't going to happen, only people with concrete under their shoes and large perches proclaimed this....

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