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OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 25th
Good morning.
Overnight China crashes again but the US markets seem to have shrugged off the down move.
Corn is up 5, beans are up 9 and wheat is up 7. All have gained ground this morning adding on a few cents to their rallies.
Stocks are sharply higher this morning witht the S & P futures pointing to a whopping 62 point opening. Don't get sucked in. This is definitely not over. I would rather be a seller on rallies than a buyer on dips. China is a much bigger deal than the media want you to believe.
The 10 year yield back over 2.00% this morning and stands at 2.07%.
Oil is up .98 to $39.22 and still finding it hard to find its feet. Gold is lower by $6.18 to $1148.93.
The dollar is stronger this morning at 94.00 up .67.
Today we get a lot of housing numbers, Markit US PMI's and the Consumer Confidence Index.
Hang on tight.
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Re: Overseas sales out of Germany are UP 2.2% for
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Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 25th
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Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 25th
Great question MT...
The "manipulated" market of China may go down as long as it is influencing other world markets ??? Is it not a "controlled" market??
Just a thought
So I agree with your question. Someone should expound on why it is a big deal..
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Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 25th
First and foremost it is a big deal because they take 1 out of every 3 bushels of soybeans that we produce. Last year they took 30% of all the DDG we produced. Last year they took 60% of all the milo we produced. They take half of all the soybeans that South America produces. They imported 10MMT of barley last year forcing Saudia Arabia to buy corn from us.
When they cough USA demand catches a cold.
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Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 25th
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US Soybean Exports (March 2015 bar chart)
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Re: US Soybean Exports (March 2015 bar chart)
This will never happen...but....Just cut the availability of U.S. grains to China and have China's ability to feed their people get disrupted. The "playing us like a fiddle" stuff would come to an end. It would be interesting to see who would blink first.
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Re: US Soybean Exports (March 2015 bar chart)
The greatest benefit of the trade with China might be that we both depend on each other. Hard to start a war with someone you depend on--from both sides.
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Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 25th
A large chunk of China got the taste of meat and feel of an iPhone. Yeah it might slow but it's going to be hard to go back to rice and a big chief tablet.
And someone in the world is going to make the throw away junk we seem to crave. And that someone might just increase their standard of living
So overall the boat rises even if China isn't the tide
Things ebb and flow. But the overall tide has and will rise
More people. More junk. More demand for commodities.