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Senior Contributor

OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 4th

Good morning. 


There seems to be a tug of war going on in the ags sector when it comes to yields. Depending on whether you follow the 'weather models' or the 'conditions models' it seems like they are about 5 to 8 bpa's apart. I don't think this next Aug report will give us any better clue so the pergatory will continue. 


Overnight the condions reports probably disappointed because the price action looks as though the trade thought things would have gotten better than what actually came out. Corn is up 3, beans are up 8 and wheat is up 3. 


The stock market is a little weaker this morning with the S & P future pointing to a lower opening by about 4 points. 


Oil is higher by about .72 cents to $45.89 and gold is higher as well to $1091.73 up $4.93. 


The dollar is a little weaker to 97.26 down .23. 


The 10 year yield is at 2.15% as we await the jobs numbers on Friday. 


Today we get ISM New York and Factory Orders. 

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6 Replies

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 4th

Wow, corn is up a whole three cents! Better go open another bank account.
Veteran Contributor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 4th

Scott your I-80 tour saw some of the best corn in the country.  I highly doubt you saw a field with a wet hole in it.  Chicago to NW Iowa is a pretty good place to take judgement of the entire crop don't you think?  If you really think a 170 yield is possible maybe lay on the short side.  Anybody that thinks we have the crop we had last year is in for a rude awakening.  Top 8 corn growing states Good/Excellent ratings are 65% vs. 76% in 2014.  But because the USDA says the ratings are growing it will "all" be good.  I can clearly remember 2013 and all the crow we heard about how good that crop was and it was only a 158. 


I do appreciate your time to post here.  I think it is rude for you to make statements that you have been tricked this year.  For places like myself that are going to have less yield than the 2012 drought I find it perplexing that since the end rows have now hid the sins of the flood that the things automatically heal.  Time will tell.

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Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 4th

Had a friend compliment a field of mine yesterday -- he said he had really noticed the soybean growth over the past couple of weeks, and was wondering what I had done to make that field really take off -- I just smiled because he's a nice guy that really doesn't know much about farming -- guess it will  surprise him when I field cultivate in a day or two to get rid of a really solid stand of waterhemp on that prevented planting field.  Have a few other fields like that one, but that's the only one visible from the road.

Frequent Contributor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 4th

That is the truth, the disconnect from urban from the Farmer has never been greater,lots of experts out there that have never broken a blister.
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Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 4th

WCMO - I'm sorry about your luck - or lack of it this year - but I have read your post twice and LMAO each time - Smiley Happy


Back in 2012 = drought year here - A news team from a major Indy channel stopped by the farm to show crops and what the drought had done - they whated to show soybeans - well they pulled in and the county agent and I were in the BEAN field - the guy introduced himself - which he's been with that channel forever - I knew who he was - now the funny part - right before they rolled the camera - he walked up to Scott and I and asked ---------------------------------  these are soybeans ----------- aren't they ???? I did everything in my power not to bust a gut LMAO - I bet this guy has been around Indiana for dam near 30 years and had to ask if they were soybeans . Now that was a head shaker for me .

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Aug 4th

Back when foxtail used to e the big problem some inexperienced oat raisers would take a quick look at their oats proclaiming that it looked like a "120bu crop coming" their hopes were quickly dashed when that heavy "oat" stand turned out to be Pigeon grass.  Now I guess waterhemp is being miss took for beans, now if we could just trick the aphids into going after the waterhemp   Smiley Happy

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