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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

OptionEye Macro Outlook August 15th

Good morning. 

 

Well, the numbers were bearish and we are highter - and sharply so. 

 

It takes a long time to get used to it but sometimes, when the bearish news in baked in, we get an adverse reaction. We initially broke on the numbers but when we got to the lows, the shorts looked around and didn't find anyone to really let them out of their positions and the race higher was on. Funds are still long over 100k beans and didn't flinch on the lows. This will be important. As long as I have been doing this, a market that rallies on bearish news is looking at something else and wants to go higher - regardless. This will be an important week. 

 

Overnight, corn is up 43, beans are up 17 and wheat is up 3. 

 

The 10 year yield is hanging around 1.50% at 1.51% and stocks look to open higher. This  morning the S&P future is up 4 points and the Dow future is up 38 points. 

 

The oil market is bid as well this morning after its best week since April. WTI is up .31 cents to $44.80. 

 

Gold is higer at $1340.55 up $4.70. 

 

The dollar is basically unchanged at 95.62 down .09. 

 

Today we get Empire Manufacturing and the NAFB Housing Market Index. 

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5 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook August 15th

Don't let anyone fool you.    Huge numbers released by the government and the market tanks......telling the end users that all is well and to scare farmers to sell.   The market then rallies during crop insurance price discovery time to keep insurance checks lower.   Rinse and repeat.   Nothing to see here.   Move along.

 

But wait.......now the market rallies after a bearish report?     Might have to change my theory.   Smiley Wink

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook August 15th

What/where is corn up sharply?  

 

Here in South Podunk Country our bid is only up 2 or 3 ¢ , not quite that 43¢ you you have. I feel so left out.

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook August 15th

Hobby - it will come - It just takes news longer to get to the back country = pony express  - lol

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook August 15th

Look for the smoke signals........................

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook August 15th

 May be it is that strong west wind that is keeping that messenger pigeon from getting here on a timely manner?

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