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Senior Contributor

OptionEye Macro Outlook - Jan. 6th

Good morning.


The world seems to be melting around us.


Overnight North Korea claims to have detonated a hydrogen bomb..underground. Unsubstantiated reports doing the rounds about tremors.


Our markets will be volatile.


Grains overnight corn is down 1, beans down 4 and wheat down 2.


The 10 year yield showing signs of world nervers as it inches lower. Currently it trades at 2.18%.

The stock markets around the world also showing nerves as Asia to Europe sees most of their stock indexes off .50% to 1.50%. Our S&P futures are off over 30 points and the Dow future off 248 points.


The oil market also is nervous as oil trades lower to $35.02 down .95 cents. Gold is getting the flight to quality boost and is higher by $8.20 to $1085.88.


The dollar is basicallly unchanged but still strong at 99.38 down .01.


Today we get MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Trade Balance. Markit US PMI's, ISM Non-Manf. Composite, Durable Goods and Cap Goods not to mention the Fed minutes from the Dec.15-16 meeting where they raised rates for the first time in nearly 10 years.


It is going to be busy news day. Hang on to your hats.

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Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook - Jan. 6th

I was kind of leaning toard the idea that Da Boyz were going to keep stocks up for a while so they could unload them on widows and orphans. Could still be.


Could be that events- China, NoKo, could overrun them. In which case there's risk of a sharp drop because market moves are about who's wrong, not who's right. Particularly if it is The House that is wrong as they're generally not accustomed to that.


CRB is getting closer to a time, price and "look" that would suggest a possible bottom. But that doesn't mean there will be a sharp reversal, probably for quite some time. All the first bounce will do is serve as confirmation that there is a bottom.


Black Swan watch- a Lehman style event triggered by the failure of one or more of the global commodity trading firms- i.e., Vitol, Glencore etc.

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