OptionEye Macro Outlook July 11th
Overnight sees a little weather premium put back into the markets. Corn is up 3 to 4, beans are up 10 to 12 and wheat is 2 to 3. We have a report tomorrow so it will be interesting to see how the market squares up its risk with the weather premium.
The stock market will open higher with the S&P future up over 8 points this morning and the Dow future up 77 points. Friday we had a good jobs number. Stocks liked it with the Dow finishing up over 250 points and the S&P finishing up 32. The odd thing about the trade was the way the bond market took the number. We are basically unchanged in yield from where we were before the number. The 10 year is at 1.39%. We can't have the stock market rally and bonds rally together forever. Something has to give. Stocks like the idea of no rate hike and more free money - we shall see.
The oil market is lower this morning at $44.81 down .60 and gold is lower as well to $1358.85 down $7.53.
The dollar is inching higher at 96.58 up .27. This will be a head wind if it keeps up.
Today we have a pretty clear schedule so it will be weather for ags and more Brexit/rate hike talk for fixed income and equities.