OptionEye Macro Outlook July 12th
Today's big event will obviously be the crop report. If we are going to have a serious bull market we better get going in beans. I don't think the corn numbers will be watched as the beans. The funds are still long 150k contracts in beans and I think it will be all about the weather and carryout from here forward. Overnight, if it matters, we had beans and corn up 1% in the G/E catagory. This morning corn is lower by 1 cent, beans are up 2 to 3 cents and wheat is down 2 cents. Pretty mixed across the board.
The stock market has been on a decent rally as the 'reach for return' and the 'yearn for yield' continues. With our 10 year yield at 1.47% this morning there aren't a lot of other places to put your money. A lot of analysts want point to a flight to quality but rather than that I think this is a yield play a lot more than a safety play. The S&P future looks to open over 10 points higher and the Dow future is up 76 points.
The oil market has been trading heavy. This morning it is up at $45.95 which is $1.19 higher. The gold market sinking with the rally in stocks and yields and trades at $1247.96 down $7.39.
The dollar is lower by .23 to 96.33.
Today will be the grain report for ags at 11:00 and in the fixed income world we get NFIB Samll Business Optimism, Wholesale Inventories and JOLTS Job Openings.