OptionEye Macro Outlook July 13th
The USDA report has come out and there wasn't really anything shocking. The world is ok again. Wait, maybe not.
We saw beans take the numbers as bullish and I think the techs support that assumption. The weather is the dominating factor and maybe that is what we get to get us another rocket shot up to the $12.00. I think that is what it will take as the longer we go down the line with the USDA and we dont't get any surprises, things begin to look heavy.
Overnight saw a continuation of yesterday's action with corn up 7, beans up over 17 and wheat up 6. It will be very important to close out the week strongly.
Stocks and the talking heads yesterday were giddy with delight. Records being set everywhere. I say - who cares? Stocks are not rallying because of a great economy. I am beginning to get warning signs that investors are buying bonds for asset appreciation and stocks for yield. Absolutely the oppositie of what they should be doing. Global events are forcing hands but it is still not a healthy market - just don't tell the television presenters.
Overnight stocks have been on both sides and currently the S&P future is unchanged to slightly better and the Dow future is up 1 point.
The oil market is lower this morning to $46.13 down .67 cents and gold is up at $1339.89 up $6.82.
The 10 year yield jumped to 1.47% but as with stocks, I think this could be a dangerous headfake. Be careful.
The dollar is unchanged to a little easier at 96.39 down .04.
Today we get MBA Mortgage Applications, the Import Price Index, the Monthly Budget Statement and the Fed releases the Beige Book.