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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 14th

"as crop conditons improve"     Folks, you just can't make this stuff up.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 14th


@Mizzou_Tiger wrote:
Corn was not unchanged

Break it down by state

Corn slipped by 1-2 points

Yes, if you break it out to 2015 acreage numbers by state you get this.  My feeble math skills say this doesn't = 0% change in G/E.

 

 

23 million acres +1%
2.8 million acres +2%
5.2 million acres +3% 31 million acres improved by an average of 1.59%

 

13.3 million acres -5%
3.5 million acres -4%
10.6 million acres -2% 27.4 million acres deteriorated by an average of 3.89%

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Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 14th

You guys are cracking me up his morning with this 'new' math - just kidding with yeah - but really - each state holds the same weight in crop conditions - like Indiana has the same weight as , say Iowa - if Indiana is up 1 then thats equal to Iowa  going up one  - they don't consider , less acres , or yield  another might be Maryland - compared to the New State I heard about this year -- MO . - they just total them all up and it is - what it is = B.S.  Crop condition reports mean nothing in the real world - it's just out there for traders to have something to talk about and people to write about .

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 14th

A corn field good-excellent rating COULD be anywhere from 150 to 300bpa, the question is how many of those acres percentage wise are 150 and how many are 250-300?  And some of that will be determined by how many nights are +70º during fill and the "test weight" debacle at harvest.

 

But in the good to excellent ratings all states aren`t equal, like if Indiana moves 2%, that`s kind of like Iowa moving .0001%, if Iowa slips 1% in the G-E rating it`s like the nation`s corn supply takes a 500 million bushel hit.   Smiley Happy

 

Well, like Rush Limbaugh`s accuracy rating of 99.8%, he`s right so much that to move the needle when you`re at that level is really hard.   Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 14th

Well loading trucks again and cleaning up my mess............... I appreciate with ire the reminder that I am not "in the trade"..... The feeders I am selling to seem to think I am,,, ah but what do they know,,,,

 

Crop condition........... What is the crop condition of corn that doesn't tassel until the month of August ............ What % of that 40% of the crop will end up silage? And what condition is that?  Still crop?

 

we are seeing conditions we have never seen before in our area.... I have reservations on calling this one an average year....... but I supose that is figured in,,,, as someone in the trade would say...

 

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 14th

But in the good to excellent ratings all states aren`t equal, like if Indiana moves 2%, that`s kind of like Iowa moving .0001% 

 

Well Wopp D DO !   BA - You sure it is that much ?? I'm just Say'n' .0001 - that's a boat load - lol

 

SoIthink I cansay - that were on the same page as to the crop reports 

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