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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 1st

Good morning.....I think. 

 

By now you all know the numbers. 

 

What can you say the morning after news like what we got yesterday. Bigger supplies combined with bigger acres. the USDA surprised us again. I really felt that the market had been beaten up pretty good over the last few months and the shock could be to the upside. How wrong I was. Instead of reducing acres they really added them. Bigtime. Stocks higher too. Not a thing for the bulls to hang on to and we are lower again this morning. Expect profit takers in all those put spreads. 

 

Corn down 4, beans down another 10 and wheat down 2. 

 

The 10 year yield climbing to 2.55%. 

 

Stocks higher as well with Europe all on the plus side as well. 

 

Gold is down .49 cents to $1326.83. Oil is up .34 cents to $105.71. 

 

The dollar is just under 80 and trading at 79.80. 

 

It will be interesting to see where we go from here for the rest of the year in grains. 

 

Good economic figures out today with Markit PMI, ISM and Construction Spending. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 1st

I suppose that was "needed" to loosen the grip of the super bulls that weren`t going to cut open their welded bin doors at any less than $5.   Trouble is like speeding, when it hits $5, then they want $6...

 

Alotta shoes to drop with this weather beaten crop, I think patience will pay off   🙂

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 1st

Other than a few counties in NE and maybe 8 counties in IA, where is the "weather beaten crop"? Crop conditions are very high, and the forecast is practically perfect for a crop with a full soil profile of water, and it is July 1st with lots of corn to tassel in the next 14 days. Just wondering...

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werkman53
Contributor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 1st

Its in NW IL now. My 8ft tall 300 bu ave corn is flat. Glad I bought green snap coverage. Looks like I am going to spend my insurance money on cattle and a new chopper.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 1st

We'll Time, Minnesota has bad spots. Dakotas, Wisconsin. It isn't so much just the drown outs, but the nitrogen leaching, there's a light green tint to most fields. Beans are stressed. We need heat and sun, but not to much Mother Nature will have dose it out precisely, because if the rain totally shut off that would be a problem. A lot of this nitrogen is in Arkansas about now and its getting late to sidedress, the cream is off here. Not to say things can't turn out okay overall, but that good will really have to be good. Of course it will all come out in the wash in January when "hey you were right, we should a paid you more....sorry. But look at this big 2015 crop comin'!".:)
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farsider
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - July 1st

Nothing in Minnesota time? I kind of feel slighted, I would bet those boys out in the Dakotas feel that way too. How about some of you in Wisconsin?
http://m.startribune.com/news/?id=265311901&c=y

Hey it's raining again!
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