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Senior Contributor

OptionEye - Macro Outlook - June 19th

Good morning. 


Overnight corn down 3, beans down 5 and wheat down 1. Very quiet as of late. Not a lot of volume..feels kind of weird. Corn chart doing the rounds comparing this crop year with 1993. Interesting fodder but I am not sure it applies.


Stocks will open...higher, yes higher, again this morning. Seems like all they do is go up anymore...The 10 year yield is hovering around 2.30% at 2.31% and waiting for its next clue. I still say no rate hike this year. 


Oil getting hit this morning, down .86 cents to $59.59 and gold is up $1.34 to $1203.26. 


The dollar is a little stronger this morning at 94.42 up .38. 


Today we get Existing Home Sales, Durable Goods, Cap Goods and Markit US Manufacturing PMI....more to chew on. 


Have a great weekend. 






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Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - June 19th

Agronomically and weather-wise, not even remotely close to 1993.


I'm not selling this too hard but closer to 1995.


Wetness slowly turned to hot and showers got spotty everywhere although there were enough wandering around through August that nobody seemed to be able to get excited.


The big surprise was the susceptibility of a couple very popular corn hybrids to GLS under ideal environmental conditions. Even though you might have suspected all was not well, nobody had a good handle on the extent of the losses until early harvest checks when most everyone was disappointed.


A frost also caught the late planted far SW belt.


Like I said, not selling the analog thing very hard but that is a scenario where even if production ultimately comes up short it won't be clear enough to keep old crop from getting burned off and requires patience on the new.

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