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ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

OptionEye - Macro Outlook - June 29th

Good morning. 

 

Greece, Greece everywhere. Definitely going to be dominating the headlines. Tomorrow's deadline looms - banks closed in Greece all week. 

 

Overnight grains are mixed with corn up 4, beans mixed and wheat up 3. 

 

The stock market has been all over the place last night and this morning. The S & P future has been down as much as 35 points and as little as 17. At the time of writing futures are down 23 points. Puerto Rico can't pay its debts. China is popping. Watch this space. 

 

The 10 year yield has come in to 2.33% from 2.47% on Friday. Can the U.S. economy ring fence these risks? I am not sure. 

 

Oil is lower by $1.55 to $58.08 and gold is up $3.26 to $1178.81. 

 

The dollar is slightly stronger at 95.59 up .12. 

 

Today we get crop conditions this afternoon and this morning we get Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed Manf. Activity. Be reminded that we get the jobs numbers on Thursday as we are off on Friday. Short but busy week. 

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11 Replies
hardnox
Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - June 29th

I wonder if China isn't the bigger deal- the crash there seemed to initiate earlier and independently.

 

Anybody who thinks they know what's going to happen here is foolish- probably speaking more to their own economic religion than anything.

 

There are numerous possiblities- including that as PBOC and the EU/SNB, (and UST/Fed, presumably) step in to backstop the markets everybody on the planet breaks the code and understands that ramping markets is all they got left- Dow to 30,000 quickly before an even worse denouement. That would probably be positive commodites for a while.

 

My thinking- as I said a function of my own religious denomination- is that China is possibly in further than we recognize and the recent stock explosion was already a hail Mary against a deflationary tide (and currently failing, although far from decided).

 

For all the worrying about China's growing influence I've contended that they never adopted capitalism, rather they jumped straight to our decadent form of end stage financialism and we should just leave them alone to swindle one another into oblivion.

 

 

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juliedavis91849
Veteran Contributor

Re: from China to Greece to Puerto Rico.... it's mayhem

and who would have guessed that Draghi would "just say no" to spraying the Greeks with infinite money...

 

Certainly, not Gottlieb, ja...

 

Gottlieb, who was never in doubt about the infinite firehose being turned on for Greece.. was indeed, wrong...

 

More mayhem coming if the S&P dips below last night's drop-

 

over and out

 

Gottlieb

 

 

 

 

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: from China to Greece to Puerto Rico.... it's mayhem

As I said, it is tricky here.

 

One scenario is what Goldman suggested a couple weeks ago- that Draghi wants a Greek default so he can push the euro sharply lower.

 

That most definitely would not be bullish commodities.

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juliedavis91849
Veteran Contributor

Re: from China to Greece to Puerto Rico.... it's mayhem

heat is being turned up right now ....

 

That Greek referendum scheduled for Sunday is for what ???  Doubtful anyone knows...

 

The loan offer from the EU, IMF, and ECB  is off the table starting Tuesday night so, Gottlieb asks what's a "yes" vote really for Sunday... ? ? ?

 

over and out

 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: from China to Greece to Puerto Rico.... it's mayhem

So are you saying that we should not wreck the currency with printing just to save the apearance of lifestyle, unless commodity markets are affected.....

 

Isn't that going to be the inevitable?

 

Will at some point grains be dumped to build defenses??

 

Is human laziness the big issue or is it lack of jobs in the new tecno production world?

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: from China to Greece to Puerto Rico.... it's mayhem

I guess if you want to know what a kraut blockhead is likely to do to do you should ask one.

 

And they thought we were stupid for invading Iraq.

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - June 29th

fwiw

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11687229/Greek-debt-crisis-is-the-Iraq-War-of-finance.h...

 

"As it happens, Edmund Burke would have found the plans presented to the Eurogroup last night by finance minister Yanis Varoufakis to be rational, reasonable, fair, and proportionate."

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bruce MN
Advisor

Re: from China to Greece to Puerto Rico.... it's mayhem

Angie's got the monkey. All other blame or attribution is simply posturing.
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - June 29th

Nox,  I have never understood why greece was let in.  They could not have been in a  viable financial position from the start.

 

The EU has got to do what they got to do..... cut em loose.....

 

They sound as foolish as us trying to change politics in independent countries by economic pressure....  

 

Won't work.....Once the corruption cancer has taken hold it will destroy itself from within.  Stop feeding it...

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