cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
ShelladyOptions
Senior Contributor

OptionEye Macro Outlook Nov. 30th

Good morning and welcome back!

 

Happy St. Andrews Day. The patron saint of Scotland.

 

Overnight grains see corn up 1, beans up 1 and wheat unchanged.

 

Stocks look to open a bit higher this morning with the S&P future up over 3 points.

 

The 10 year yield basically unchanged from last week at 2.23% as we all await yet another non-farm payroll report that will either support the Fed's move on interest rates or muddy the picture some more.

 

Oil is a little higher in early trade at $42.05 up .34 cents. Gold is lower by $1.09 to $1056.32 and pretty quiet.

 

The dollar is.,..wait for it.....wait for it......higher again to 100.22 up .20.

 

Today we get the ISM Milwakee numbers, Chicago Purchasing Manager Index, Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity report.

0 Kudos
4 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook Nov. 30th

With the dollar going up, the trade must really be dialing in a fed rate increase on Dec 16.  If that doesn`t happen and Janet says "well by golly we didn`t raise it this time, but look out, we might raise it at the next meeting...just sayin`"   How many times is the fed going to waterboard us before we get trained that we aren`t really drowning?  🙂    But they might raise it .25 points to prove that they can, but after the fact, I wonder what happens.

0 Kudos
elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook Nov. 30th

This economy can not stand an interest hike.

And they know it, but don't want to admit it.
0 Kudos
WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook Nov. 30th

I personally don't think that 0.25% or 0.50% rate "hike" would really affect things that much generally, just because rates are so low and have been so low for so long -- but I could be wrong, obviously.  Biggest problem for most of us farmers would be the impact on value of the dollar, assuming the rate increase would translate into a stonger dollar valuation, thus potentially reducing grain exports.

0 Kudos
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook Nov. 30th

I`m 50/50 split if it`s a .25 basis increase or doing nothing but getting a stern "wait until your father gets home" warning.  

 

If it`s a .25 hike, I don`t think taking CD returns from 1 1/4% up to 1.50% is going to encourage saving money.  It could however freak everyone out that it`s a change to a more hawkish fed and slam the brakes on consumer spending.  Maybe a .50 hike is factored in the markets and a .25 rise would be seen as negative to the dollar and "Holy crap! things are so bad they couldn`t take rates up from 0% to .5 %????"  So whatever happens the market reaction will be interesting  🙂

0 Kudos