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Senior Contributor

OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Oct. 3rd

Good morning. 


It is jobs day. Here is what we know. 


- commodities getting hit across the board because of some supply issues but also by a mucy stronger dollar

- sometimes these commodity indexes can be a clue as to what is on the horizon. ( Deflation?)

- the global macro scene is becoming increasingly volatile

- interest rates are not doing what most 'experts' thought they would

- stocks look to be paring gains and actually (finally) pulling back a bit


The jobs report will give us a clue about the economy but if the commodity indexes are right, we have a bumpy road ahead. October has already started out that way. 


Overnight, corn, beans and wheat all basically unchanged. 


Stocks are higher with the S & P up 9 poinst. 


The dollar has been the story and is up again today at 85.97 up .37 from yesterday. 


Oil is lower by .41 cents to $90.60. Gold is down too to $1208.06 down $6.46. 


Fasten your seatbelts is the advice for the day. 

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3 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Oct. 3rd

How long can the seed and fertilizer companies convince us to come into their little world where deflation doesn`t exist?  🙂   I think the federal lever pullers are going to find out that a little inflation isn`t as big of a vice as full blown deflation.

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Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Oct. 3rd

The fertilzer issue must have crept up and finally grabbed one of our local coops this fall when everyone started shopping for HRW wheat starter. One of them is offering free blending and on farm deliveries on quantities smaller than a complete load.

FWIW, I saved $19/A by switching from liquid to dry.
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Senior Advisor

Re: OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Oct. 3rd

Too bad Congress is MIA. They have mainly been on vacation, though it's hard to tell the difference cause they don't get anything done in session either. It is a derelict institution at this point.


We are drifting when we should have some strong growth policies. Deflation = Great Depression II. It could easily start in the EU. A stronger US economy could help prevent that.


But many in Congress are afraid of who might get credit if there is improvement and they can't take a chance. Very sad. Disgusting. AND morally criminal.

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