OptionEye - Macro Outlook - Oct 7th

[ShelladyOptions]

Good morning. 

Nice bullish price action yesterday started with the overnight session up on harvest concerns. At 9:30 am CST there was an 8k lot buy stop that hit beans and everything took off from there. The bears were their own worst enemy adding fuel to the fire on the way out. 

This morning we have corn down 2, beans down 6 and wheat unchanged. 

With the report on Friday we also had some shorts take some profits off the board. 

This morning we had some negative news out of Germany we have stocks on the defensive. The S & P is down 3 points and Europe is lower by .63% to 1.67%. Not gonna be pretty today.

The 10 year yield is at 2.41%. 

Oil is off .08 cents to $90.26 and gold is lower by $2.31 to $1204.99.

The dollar is a tad stronger to 85.98 which is up .05.

No real numbers today so it will be weakness in Europe and Ebola that rule the headlines.  

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

It was not my 8k lot buy stop, I promise.  Hey, everybody quit looking at me like that!

[sw363535]

Scott,

You had the guts to say it Wow     B-u-l-l-i-s-h,  I am still spelling it so no one hears

Bullish or not there is a lot of pent up unwinding in the grains.  

[sw363535]

Scott where is the unemployment number now   27% ------ no wait that is  _7% adjusted for SCL.  (social comfort level)

[elcheapo]

Unemployment number is now almost impossible to figure, if you are unemployed
For a year (I think that is the period) you
Are no longer counted.
This. Was changed before the current administration.
Many folks are under employed.

[luisvieira]

Mike,

I think these news may have a market impact in the future. It may be signifant locally, but perhaps around the world. I think Argentina's government want to bankrupt Cargill in the country and the other ABCD companies... I put at my own agrosouth-news.com today:

Argentina’s news portal Infobae revealed today that there is a plan of the country’s federal government to create a competitor to Archer Daniel Midland, Bunge, Cargill, and Dreyfus. The four companies have a market share of 85 percent of the local market. According to the story, the government’s goal creating the new company is to intervene on grain prices. The government would offer an advantage to farmers. The retention on soybeans, or the export tax, would be charged between 5 percent to 10 percent of the transaction, while the rate for other companies would remain 35 percent.

[sw363535]

Luis,

Will the Argentine government grain company have the "faith" of the farmer ------- enough to draw the business???

 the US government would change the rules too often for comfort I assume the same problem will be in Argentina.

Some of those ABCD companies are in better shape financially than some of the worlds governments.

When we store our grain with someone, we hope we can trust them, and we hope the check is good........

[luisvieira]

They do not trust at all, but they'll be offering that advantage I guess. I honestly don't know what may happen. But one possible scenario is that the ABCD companies leave Argentina and then the government-run company faces extreme difficulties....

[sw363535]

thank you luis,

I Hope the farmers in Argentina do not loose their options.

Thanks