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Senior Contributor

OptionEye Macro Outlook October 30th

Good morning. 

 

Overnight sees corn steady to a bit better, beans 5 to 6 higher and wheat mixed.

 

The dollar is backing off a tad at 94.66 down .24. 

 

The stock market will open a little lower this morning with the S&P future down almost 5 points and the Dow future down 32. 

 

The 10 year yield slipping back below that important 2.40% level at 2.39% in early trade. 

 

The crude oil market is quiet and stands at $53.85 down .05 cents. Gold is a little lower at $1271.29 down $2.58. 

 

Today we get Person Income, Personal Spending, the PCE Deflator and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index. 

 

 

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11 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook October 30th

As the calendar turns to November the coop`s basis is a nickel better.   I wonder if beans turned a corner here or are we gonna have a "turn around Tuesday" a give back the futures gains back.   It`d be nice to sell beans at the elevator for 9 something instead of 8 something.   But the minute I sell, it`ll be a bull strapped to a rocket.   Smiley Happy

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Advisor

were the beans out there?

I hauled a few semi loads of soybeans to CHS Mankato and never experienced a line. My farm average last year was about 55...this year 48, with variability from 37 low to 59 high on various fields. Neighbors that bragged about 70 plus last year....high 50's.

 

What was Iowa like?

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Honored Advisor

Re: were the beans out there?

Around here it was 40 to 75, for me personally mid 50`s about 15 bushel down from last year.  To honest it was better than I thought it would be but still below the USDA forecast of 57 for Ia state average.  I don`t see how Iowa averages 57, though I do know a credible guy that says his beans averaged 67.  

 

Now, the elevators aren`t as full as one would think with beans, but that could be a lot of factors, more on farm storage, spread out harvest so beans moved where they needed to, elevators anticipating big crop swept the bins and were ready for a crop that didn`t quite show up?   Andy Sizzler on USFR thinks beans do have a bullish story.   But bullish enough to pay commercial storage?

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Advisor

Re: were the beans out there?

five cents a month plus is already built into the pricing at CHS....next June is $9.71, was $9.90 about a week ago. I think $10 will attract a lot of sellers, but who knows what the high will be if the crop actually is on the short side.

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Honored Advisor

Re: were the beans out there?

I know a guy that`s always just "one step ahead of the sheriff" financially speaking and he raised 100% beans and depending on his marketing, that gamble perhaps keeps him farming another year.  I dislike raising beans as a lot of farmers do, but when the dust or "mud" this year settles, I think beans will be more profitable than corn* (well, you lose less, let me put it that way   Smiley Happy  ).

 

I think there will be tremendous pressure to raise beans in 2018, especially from the continuous corn jockeys, if you have ground that hasn`t raised beans in 5yrs, that`s where you can get some really incredible yields.  But there`s always contrarians that`ll go 100% corn and that`ll cancel out the increase in bean acres.

 

I don`t know if it`s seed or weather, but I can finally raise over 50 bushel beans in a C/B rotation, so that with the price is making me hate beans a little less Smiley Happy

 

If weather matters anymore, The Farmers Almanac is calling for a hot/dry summer in `18, in the Midwest....but beans can be burnt to the ground in July, come fall the yahoos will be saying "Best bean crop ever 85bu! Musta been that 1/4" shot of rain we got in August"   SMH Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: were the beans out there?

Pile at Gavilon,  Creston, IA yesterday 

 

Also got text yesterday morning that all beans except non GMO and previous contract were cash sale only by end of the business day they were delivered. 

 

2017-10-30 10.47.26.jpg

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Honored Advisor

Re: were the beans out there?

Still lots of beans still waiting for a combine in this area

 

Mine included

 

Even more corn looking for a combine

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook October 30th

That many beans on the ground would really stink after a rain.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: OptionEye Macro Outlook October 30th

SW......you need to watch frontline "putins revenge"......I now view everything different.......it even calls into question, in my opinion,

the market information we get.

we all shake our heads on how "out of line" stories are......how the traders don't seem to be reading the right stuff, how the experts

say things opposite what we see.......

perhaps, I need to even question the photo posted, of a "pile of beans"........

a very interesting point......how hackers are working all the time, in "many areas" that can undermine us.......has hackers impacted

the commodity trade ?

 

I am starting to think.........perhaps they have.

 

 

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