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Senior Contributor

OptionEye Macro Outlook - Sept. 2nd

Good morning all.

 

Overnight a little more stability here in the US while things settle down abroad as well. It should be noted that I think a lot of this unrest can be put down to a few things. Firstly, I still stand by my own assertations that the US economy is not doing as well as the talking heads would like to tell you. This jobs number on Friday will be another big one. The Fed is trying to stay relevant and may use a halfway decent number to hike rates. I think that would be a mistake as they have missed their opportunity. Secondly, obviously China. We have beaten the point to death but they are slowing. Period. How much it affects us is debateable but it definitely will. And lastly, the Fed rhetoric from the vairous members that is counter productive to the Feds message. With one member saying one thing and another saying something totally different, I think has investors spooked. Why get involved when the message is so mixed?

 

Grains are quiet with corn down 1, beans steady better and wheat down 1.

 

The equity market here looks to bounce back with the Dow future pointing to an opening of about 120 points better and the S & P future about 10 points higher.

 

Oil gave a lot back yesterday and looks to continue that move today. Currently oil is down .95 cents to $44.46. Gold caught a little bid yesterday and is steady to a little easier this morning down .60 cents to $1139.68.

 

The dollar is a bit stronger to 95.74 up .29.

 

Today we get MBA Mortgage Applicatons, ADP Employment and Facrory Orders.

 

The volatility is here to stay.

 

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