OptionEye...May 22nd

[ShelladyOptions]

Good morning.

Corn and wheat higher. Beans a little lower.

Gold bouncing a bit here up $13.75 at $1390.12. The 10 year yield is 1.93% and stalling at the 2.00% level. EUR has also rebounded a bit to 1.29.

Big Ben speaking in front of Congress today as well as the release FOMC minutes will keep markets close to home but I think not a lot will come of the meetings. The trade is looking for some average as to when the FED will stop printing money but with inflation low and economic indicators still flagging, I think there will be no significant change in policy. While I look forward to the day we don't print, I still think it's a long way off.

Arguably things are getting a bit better but the key word is 'bit'. Housing is bouncing off its lows but has a LONG LONG way to come back. The unemployment rate is stuck at 7.5%  which is down from 10% but we have a record 48 million people on food stamps. The water is still very murky.

[Red Steele]

the 7.5% unemployment rate seems a little fishy. Does anyone thing that out of 100 people in America that would or could work, that 92.5 of them are working?

[Hobbyfarmer]

40+ million on food stamps...are they now considered "getting a check" so therefore working?

[redrotor]

No, don't need  a W2 or W4 to get food stamps.

[Palouser]

Food stamps are like farming. Except farmers get money and subsidies even when they make money. And unlike welfare there is no cut off date. And subsidies increase w/o farmers even asking for it. As the crops out there get more valuable  because of ethanol and a booming global demand then farmers need subsidized insurance. Heck! We can't afford to cover all that value on our own and most farmers would go broke if that cash flow ever stopped.

We got em over a barrel !!!!!    😉

[Red Steele]

People used to go into and out of farming on a regular basis and there seemed to never be a shortage of aspiring farmers. Maybe those days were better?

Turning farming into another industry dominated by oligarths and regulated by the federal government was a long term plan from many decades ago, from what I have read, and seems to have been a success of the permanent government throughout both Republican and Democratic administrations. Who says that big government doesn't work?

[jec22]

Farming,  what a great year.  Here the calendar is soon going to turn on to the sixth month, and I have only had to work in the fields one week.  What a life!   I suppose that does make me 'unemployed'.   Life is stranger than fiction.

[Palouser]

When asked what I do I try and be as truthful as I can be. I don't have animals and I can't quite justify a heated shop (what to do?) so I go south for part of the winter to hike and climb. My usual explanation of my job is that 'I haave a half time job but I make it last all year.'  Perhaps I should pay into the unemployment fund and collect for six months.

I'd apply if I were you. Who knows, despite the corrosive effects of handouts farmers seem uniquely able to retain their motivation and morals - unlike the rest of the population - and remain productive. You may be rewarded with payments out of admiration of how hard we work in the fields riding arounds in our tractors and keeping track of our electronic monitors. It's a hard job.

[sneeky253]

I have often wondered if you guys (the US) didn't have the subsidies that you do now, would you grow more or less grain? A lot of people tend to think that you would grow less, but I have a feeling that these subsidies could actually mean that you grow less grain because you don't have to try as hard to make a living. The cropping game is that hard in Australia that we have to be as productive as we can to stay afloat and even then we are really struggling. Imagine if you will that last year you got no insurance and had to make up for last years losses this year, would that make you try harder?

Just a thought.

[centralillinois]

If we weren't subsidized, the price fluctuations would be more severe.  Bankers would have a hard time loaning money for crops grown on marginal ground if the insurance premiums weren't paid for mainly by the government.  So we'd see fewer acres but if we had a yield problem prices would skyrocket.  And with grain prices swinging wildly livestock producers would also have a more difficult time convincing bankers to loan them money.  Basically if we weren't subsidized it would cost the government less but in the long run consumers would pay more at the store.  And advice is worth two cents.....