cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Contributor

OptionEye.....Nov. 1

Good morning.

 

Well, the overnight markets make me feel like the dollar is significantly weaker but my information tells me that it is relatively unchanged. Gold is higher and so are the grains. As we enter into a the 'week we've been waiting for' I hope we get what we wanted.

 

I still am bullish grains if only for the food reason which can't be solved right away. Also, somewhere, sometime, the dollar will see some inflation but as of yet, all of the currencies have been caught in roughly the same tide. As I write, corn, wheat and beans are all up between 5 and 7 cents. Gold is up $6 and crude is up .75 cents.

 

The election will be interesting as well as non-farm payrolls so the week with three big events should give us some decent trends going into the new year.

 

Hope your Halloween was a good one.

 

Talk later. If you have any questions feel free to ask.

 

Scott

 

0 Kudos
5 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....Nov. 1

"I still am bullish grains if only for the food reason which can't be solved right away. "

Scott,

What do you mean by the above statement?  Food where, the world or the U.S.?  There's surely no shortage of food in the U.S., do you mean the processors are raising prices?  That doesn't mean the producer gets any more, so that may affect futures (traders perceptsions) but not the cash (what Quaker Oats pays me).

 

Do you think the election results will have any long term affect on the market?  I don't see that happening but who knows?

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....Nov. 1

OptionEye,

 

It seems the grain world is getting a new political face. Along with the question of what affect the U.S. elections will have on grains, what about Brazil's new President, Dilma Rousseffs. It's the first woman president for Brazil. Perhaps more importantly, she is a protege of Lula, the former president. Do you think the new president will favor farmer initiatives or make life difficult for them. I'm told farmers didn't like Lula and were not going to vote for Rousseffs. What do you think?

 

Meanwhile, Argentina's President just lost her husband to a sudden death, who was thought to be behind a lot of her decision-making. And we all know the pressure and fighting that went on with farmers in that country. This morning, the Dow Jones Newswire is reporting that, "Speculation that she might move away from some of her husband's policies helped push Argentine stock and bond prices higher last week."

 

Mike

0 Kudos
Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....Nov. 1

I am of the opinion that there is a tightness in the food chain globally. True, things in the states are good but I believe, in the whole, that for the first time the producer has got to 'produce'. We have had some issues around the world that have helped give rise (no pun intended) to the situation we have at the moment and with some dollar speculation the commodity world has caught fire.

 

As for midterms, the only thing that can affect us is if the election somehow immediately impacts the economy or the dollar. And, having said that, I am not holding my breath.

 

Scott

0 Kudos
Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....Nov. 1

Thanks Mike. I can always count on you for easy questions to answer!

 

As for the affect on South America and the Rouseffs/Lula policy or lack thereof I am of the ilk that weather, demand and currency play a much larger role and acutally sometimes are the forces that affect/change government policy. Kind of a bland answer but that is the best that I could do at 6:07 this morning.

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: OptionEye.....Nov. 1

Brazil's progress under socialist Lula has introduced one of the best eras in Brazil in their history. The farmers didn't care fort Lula because he wouldn't jump when they said 'jump'. He saw them as a favored landed class that had already had vast amounts of government help (which is certainly true). Farmers didn't like the appreciation of currency due to responsible budgets and management. It effectively made their return lower vs the dollar.

 

Think about it. Meanwhile US farmers, especially the corn belt, have done very well with the opposite conditions.

0 Kudos