OptionEye....Oct 15th

[ShelladyOptions]

Ugly.

Things melting overnight.

Beans down 28. Corn down 14 and wheat down 10. Is the rally over? Checking the wires can't really find anything that can be the real reason for this big of a back up in prices.

Market just feels a little long and wants to give up in the short term.

Could this be the Frank/Dodd effect?

We shall see....

[docharing]

The market seems intent on making sure we run out of soybeans. The USDA found a little more supply but the demand seems constant at any price up to the 17's , what gives here?

[Mizzou_Tiger]

It will be known as the great soya robbery.......

[ShelladyOptions]

In my 24 years things have never been so confusing and I think it is because of a few factors...it doesn't matter what you are trading. Fixed income volumes are horrible. Equity volumes are horrible and so are commodity volumes. In general we are seeing all time high prices across the board as well. Equities, 4 year highs. Ags very high and fixed income (the inverse of 100) are trading at 99.75 and bonds are through the roof as well. High prices mean nobody wants to make a long term plan. Election means nobody will want to make a long term plan. Economy means nobody will make a long term plan. All three together makes for a very weird market.

[sw363535]

tttttttttthank you scott,

back of my mind has been working on the positioning before election idea, but I hadn't looked at in that broad a terms.  

Appreciate your thoughts.

[clayton58]

would you care to expand on your "positioning before election idea"?  Im interested in your thought process, what are you positioning for (or against), and how do you go about it?  Just trying to understand and learn,  (expand my box, or think outside of it)

[sw363535]

Clayton58,

Scott may not respond on this one, but my thoughts--------- Our farm is selling corn in the $8 area and not holding over as much for spring delivery as normal  ---(bird in the hand idea)- Our traditional spring buyers are short of cattle and not sure what they will be buying after the first of the year. -------We don't like the 2013 bid so selling 2012 and waiting for 13 opportunities looks good to the bottom line.  This is how I start thinking when the "trend" is hard to see in the market.

election

Incumbent candidates struggle with poor economies and we been QEing our selves to death trying to keep this economy alive and the last one didn't feel like adrenilin.---(not much boost).  If the likely hood of change means a fed change of attitude and a boost to financials and stocks, then grains may go through an adjustment period.

We are thinking to get our selling done--(and we do not have a lot left to do)--before the election.  So we can wait the adjustment or change period out for some time before we need to sell the last of 2012 and beginning of 2013 crops.

Just our thoughts--------- Better than thinking about the market today or the sky diver who started it.   Funds sure sold today, made me wonder if they were positioning for election.  Hoping Scott throw a little wisdom on my thoughts.

[clayton58]

Thanks sw Makes sense to me. So what are you doing with wheat?  Or is wheat just a minor crop on your farm, so you don't worry about it?  Withmost of my wheat being on dryland acres it is hard to sell much ahead.

[sw363535]

clayton,

We are like you on wheat, but we do have a little irrigated wheat and we might forward contract up to 25% of the irrigated expectations-----conservative estimates.

Or I am inclined to use a futures position to set a price----easier to get out of than a delivery contract.

[kraft-t]

Trading between willing buyers and willing sellers is called robbery?