OptionEye......Oct. 18th

[ShelladyOptions]

Crisis averted.

Or maybe not.

No report for October so we have to wait until Nov. 8th. Options volumes have not rebounded at all with the opening of the government. We are still in a holding pattern with a lack of reports and news. Overnight action was a little better as far as price. Corn was up 3.5 beans up 6 and wheat up 9.

This distinct lack of news has got the weak shorts on the run. Rumours of foreign buying also helping to give things a boost as does wet weather. Traders talking yesterday about things being slow until the Nov report. We shall see.

In other news the 10 year yield is the talk of the town. The yield has plummeted to 2.55% from recent highs of 2.74%. This is clearing a sign that the market still believes that the same old leaders are running the country, the same old economy is still in place and the same old threats we saw last month are still lurking around the corner.

Gold is down a little at $1317.51 down $2.83 and oil is up .93 cents to $101.60.

Again, the 10 year is the truth serum. Stocks are pumped by the government. today they are a little higher but manipulate. Watch the 10 year yield for guidance.

[jrsiajdranch]

I'm confused.

Wouldn't the yield be going up to attract more investment so as to allow for more money to flow into the inflated debt ceiling? I would think investors would be getting pretty nervous about sticking money into this broken system. So to attract real money from REAL investors the interest rate will have to climb.

UNLESS........................

You have a printing press and you really do not need to attract REAL investors for REAL money.

SO now as the yield goes lower I think the fix is in. We are wholly living on the pulp of the new growth trees.

SCARRRRRRRRYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

[highyields]

I really thought they might send us into "default" this time.  The US can't really default, its more of a scrae tatic then anything. according to the constitution, remember that piece of paper,  according to the constitution IF the US where to go into default it would force the govenrment to realigate the money to pay the bills,  in other words a balanced budget.  

We the United States can't keep living like we are, the only reason we have gotten by with it this long is because we are the world currency,  otherwise we had been flat on our backs a long time ago.   

[crophugger]

Seems that the local interest rates are creeping up a little why is that

[kraft-t]

They just as well get rid of the debt ceiling. It doesn't limit spending, it limits paying and not paying what is owed is not a good strategy.

Obama has set a new precedent and most future presidents will follow. The president will NOT negotiate concessions via the debt limit debate. Forgetaboutit.

Although I've heard that president Reagan did the same thing. Qoute " there will be no bills of any sort cross my desk until the debt limit is raised." I don't know who was trying to intimidate him but he put the keebosh to that effort.

Budgetary problems can be solved by less spending but don't go to seniors asking for concessions until you repeal the Bush tax cuts. I don't want ny benefit cut to keep your tax rates lower. Screw you and the horse you rode in on. I've paid FICA taxes since 1956 until 2012 and I expect to get what is owed to me. And that debt is just as important as the debt owed to the chinese or the Saudis.

When you repeal the Bush tax cuts, that will indicate that you are serious about a balanced budget. Until then you are merely blowing smoke up our ***.

[Palouser]

I guess it's all magic then,. There IS no reality as you describe it it. Though many seem to be under the same impression as yourself. What you describe is the Congress passing legislation and then saying it isn't going to pay for it. And by the way, House Republicans were trying to pass some legislation to PREVENT the very kind of flexibility that you assume there is. They were serious!

This kind of thinking is the thinking that ended Athenian democracy (such as it was). But maybe it's something to be proud of - ditch the procedures for governing that are in the Constitution and do things with Italian style !!!

Short term treasuries are one of the foundations of daily credit for business and banks. You start screwing with the volume of that and get it wrong - since it's never been done the way you desire, and you could start a cascade of lock up just like after Lehman Bros.  Start delaying payments while things are figured out and see what happens to 'full faith and credit'.  And the cost to borrow.

For the life of me I don't understand substituting the real world for fantasies when it comes to important stuff! But, as I say, some want to 'feel', not know!

[lsc76cat]

Just like many other folks I have been paying FICA taxes for 35+ years and am within 10 years of being able to start getting some of it back.  Given the current quality of people holding elected office I have zero confidence there will be much left to collect.  I am sure we all know people that retired 20+ years ago and have drawn much more out than they ever payed in, including interest.  The expansion of Social Security to include disability payments weakened the system as well. 

Tell me one thing - if I die tomorrow whe gets all the money I paid in?

Kind of hard to criticize anybody at the trough when there are so many of us there!!

[kraft-t]

Your not gonna die tomorrowand you will get benefits. It may take a little tweeking on revenues but it will be there if we don't give the lunatics the reins.

BTW do ypou now who is the largesty holder of US bonds. It's not the Saudis. It's not the chinese. It's you and me bub, the social security trust fund.

[lsc76cat]

Between the unfunded liabilities and the rapidly growing debt "a little tweeking on revenues" won't even come close.  This is so obvious even my brand new grandson understands it.  Grandma and Grandpa went with the nurse to do the footprint and measurement routine and after he was bundled up in his knapsack he was resting peacefully in Grandma's arms.  After Grandpa took a few pictures the little guy was quietly informed what his share of the debt is.  He cried immediately!!

[lsc76cat]

For the record, here's Marty.