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Senior Contributor


Good morning.


Happy October. Government shutdown begins. Maybe we can enlist the services of President Putin to help us out of this mess too. Oh well.


Yesterday's quarterly stocks report was big. Bigger than expected bean number and an even bigger than expected corn number. Wheat, not so much.


Corn near a 3 year low. The biggest question I got yesterday was why wasn't corn down more. Well, I think the biggest reason was the fact that the risk reward down here gets worse and worse. Any new shorts at this level will only potentially see $4.00 in Dec corn which is really not that far away. They will be easily squeezed out on any rally hence making breaks slow and arduous.


Beans are down 10 again this morning, corn down 1 and wheat down 2.


Reports this morning here in Chicago that the government shutdown may delay the next crop production number release. So stay tuned.


Stocks are apparently happy with the shutdown. They are up this morning in early overnight trade. The 10 year yield has also risen to 2.65%. Crude is basically unchanged at $102.42 and Gold is also pretty flat at $1326.62.


What happens next is anyone's guess but previous shutdowns have not been that bad to the markets. The prospect of damaging the GDP is real and estimates are for a .1% per decline. So if we are shutdown for two weeks, this could potentially hit our GDP by .2% to an already paltry growth rate.


We shall see....

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