OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Dec 24th
I hope everyone has a great Christmas.
Beans down 1, wheat down 2 and corn ever so slightly lower.
Ten year still trying for 3.00%, trading at 2.94%. Gold up $1.12 to $1199.95. Crude trading at $99.07 up .16 cents.
The dollar is a little stronger at 80.50 on the index.
Today we get durable goods and capital goods orders. Maybe that is the push the 10 year needs.
To BA Deere, I do look at natty gas. The lines on the graph really aren't that helpful but if you look at a chart going back to 1990 we generally have been trading in a $2.00 to $4.00 range with a high of $13.92 back in 2005 and a low of $1.20 in 1991. So, just by that info we have a long way to go to make any new highs and until we stop burning more of it than we use I will play from the bear side.
As for Nitrogen I would agree with sw36. There are a lot of other energy factors that come into play.
As far as commodities as a whole I like to keep an eye on the CRB Index for some forward guidance. And since 2011 it has been on a slow and steady downtrend. Its high was 579 in April of 2011 and the low was 305 in March of 2009. Today we sit at 455 on the way down from that 579 level in April 2011.