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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Dec 30th

I wonder Hobby,

 

How much of that wall is pre priced and contracted  versus new sales needing to get into the flow in the next few months.

They counter each other and I tend to hope in a down trend that a lot of the pre priced contracts are going to finish --positions get bought.

The amount of carry in sales last January also gives me a little hope there as well.

 

Am I just grabbing for straws??

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Dec 30th

I don't think you grab for straws.

 

That is really more in my area of expertise.

 

I really hope I am wrong (wouldn't be the first or second time for that)

 

I feel a higher % of beans left the farm and were cashed out at harvest than normal. Many more left in the last several weeks at $13+ . Needed to, with SA having record acres...the new 800 gorilla of production.

 

I think corn was the one put in the bins because of sub $5 prices and just coming away from $7.80 prices last spring. With the Mir mismanagement thing and the bears in control of prices, it just maybe a little tsunami of price pain for a while. Seems the price pendulum always swings a little too far reguardless of which way it is going at the time.

 

Based on a little inside info, even North Central Iowa was not out of corn last summer. Just running very low on supplies that were for sale. Even Ray J told of large blocks of corn that wasn't for sale in his area.

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Dec 30th

If that corn was not for sale at $7 plus why would it be for sale at $4?
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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Dec 30th

Might need the bin space

 

Get over that "hope" stage of price expectation.

 

Some of it will be "inherited" and sold

 

The owner will be in a lower tax bracket

 

Just bite the bullet and sell it to cover expenses and not have to give half of it to the tax man after a bad crop year.

 

There comes two points in a persons life when enough is enough

 

A) giving too much to the tax man Goes against the grain of many 6+ DECADE OLD farmers that have gone from the 40hp open station tractors, lean times at various stages in their career, weathering the "80s to have to write 6 figure checks to the IRS just to w a tc h the idiocy of the give aways orchestrated by Washington DC polecat's.

 

B) loosing hope

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Dec 30th

I couldn't have said it better Hobby.

 

I think tax issues and keeping it out of the govt. hands is way more of a decision maker than it should be ----- even for me.

 

Ray J was right on that issue and hitting pretty close to home with me.  But I still like the idea there are principles that will trump economics.  facilitating adictions just sticks in my throat especially when I am financially rewarded for it.  One of those "road to hell" issues.

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Honored Advisor

Re: OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Dec 30th

I can say hell but not l.i.v.e.  And I gotta wait 30 seconds ------------ I may fall asleep

 

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