OptionEye - The Cow Guy - Feb 12th

[ShelladyOptions]

Good morning. 

Overnight grain trade has corn 1 lower, beans 2 lower and wheat unchanged. 

As profitability between corn and beans gets more towards equal, stories of switching to beans have done the rounds on the floor. Risk less money for the same expectations. All the while talk that corn numbers globally were getting bigger somehow which put a cap on any rallies. 

Stock futures unchanged after rising during Yellen's Humphrey Hawkins testimony. S and P up 3 to 7 handles when the text was released but then staged a big rally throughout the Q and A. 

Gold trying for $1300 and trading at $1290.60 down .85 cents. Oil at $100.48 up .54 cents could have a negative effect on the economy right now. Things seem to be a bit more fragile than late last year. 

The dollar is a tad stronger at 80.81.

The day will be a quiet one as far as economic news. Tomorrow we get Retail Sales. That should give us a better snapshot but I still think things are not doing as well as the talking heads would like us to think. Period. 

[BF2012]

Why on earth would you think the retail numbers would be anything other than phoney.  

[roarintiger1]

And yet, there are those folks that believe the USDA numbers............

[jennys_mn]

Our downturn in the stock market began because of a downturn in the world markets. This morning, Hong Kong is again up strong, 1.5% +.

When I go out shopping, I often ask the retailers how their sales have been. The answer over the last two years is always positive. One of the best people I like to talk with is a friend of mine in the concrete business. He's very busy again, and book out over a month this spring. Things have improved. Greatly. Are we back to where we were 10 years ago - no. We should all hope we never see that scenario again because a lot of it was generated on the housing boom - that went boom - because at its end it was all a greed driven lie. We're very fortunate that our entire monitary system didn't collapse.

A few got rich, many paid and continue to pay the price. Kinda like how our futures system works. A system that used to be for price discovery, is now a system built on the fastest computers, and who has he deepest pockets. And lots and lots of lies that makes it difficult to know what the real truth is anymore.

Enough of my morning rant - I have a hot tub calling me. Have a good day everyone.

Jen

[giolucas]

Roaringtiger,

What numbers do you believe in if you do not believe in the USDA's?  Last year all I heard was, " trade your back yard" and look where that got a lot of people. 

[roarintiger1]

The USDA should be complete and add up or subtract ALL of the "backyards".......and report REAL numbers.  Not ones that are from fantasy land.

Their poorly predicted yields of the past several years are proof.  They really should not be predicting anything.  They should only be reporting factual numbers.

I really shouldn't bother explaining this.....If folks don't understand that the USDA's wild preseason predictions lower the prices farmers recieve, reading what I type isn't gonna matter.......and, it's not gonna change things.